NBA 2025-2026: Portland Trail Blazers vs Philadelphia 76ers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Portland Trail Blazers
Home Team
41.5%
VS
Philadelphia 76ers
Away Team
58.5%
Key Prediction Insights
The Philadelphia 76ers are the pick to win, with a 58.5% probability. Expected starting fives — Portland Trail Blazers: Jrue Holiday, Deni Avdija, Jerami Grant, Toumani Camara, Donovan Clingan; Philadelphia 76ers: Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Dominick Barlow, Kelly Oubre Jr., Joel Embiid.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model projects a combined 235.71 points, suggesting an above-average scoring night and a fairly uptempo game. The expected spread (Home - Away) is -0.77, a tiny edge to the away team (about three-quarters of a point), so this is essentially a coin-flip margin leaning toward Philadelphia.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
235.7
Most likely outcome: 235 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Portland Trail Blazers - Philadelphia 76ers)
-0.8
Most likely outcome: -1 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Game Analysis
Portland comes in with momentum from two straight wins over Memphis (122-115, 135-115) after a 125-130 loss to Phoenix — they’ve averaged 127.33 points and allowed 120.00 across those three games. Philadelphia is 2-1 in its last three (wins over Phoenix 109-103 and Golden State 113-94, loss at L.A. Lakers 115-119), averaging 112.33 points and allowing 105.33; they’ve shown they can defend and close out against top opponents.
Looking at the expected starters, Portland’s five average an offensive rating of 119.02 and defensive rating of 117.22, with an average of 16.74 points made per starter. Philadelphia’s starters average an offensive rating of 119.38 and a defensive rating of 115.00, with 18.59 points made per starter. Those similar offensive profiles but Philly’s stronger defensive rating and higher scoring by starters help explain the 76ers’ slight edge.
Final Prediction
Philadelphia’s combination of efficient offense from the starting five and a better average defensive rating gives them the advantage in a close matchup. Key factor to watch: how well Portland contains Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid, since Philadelphia’s edge centers on its starters producing and defending.
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