NBA 2025-2026: New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
New York Knicks
Home Team
85.6%
VS
Indiana Pacers
Away Team
14.4%
Key Prediction Insights
The model favors the New York Knicks to win with an 85.6% probability. Expected starting fives: New York — Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns; Indiana — Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Jarace Walker, Pascal Siakam, Jay Huff.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The expected combined total is 228.46 points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring game and a faster pace when both offenses click. The expected spread (Home − Away) is 14.48 points, giving a large advantage to the home team in this projection.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
228.5
Most likely outcome: 228 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (New York Knicks - Indiana Pacers)
14.5
Most likely outcome: 15 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Game Analysis
New York has split its last three games (wins over Boston 111-89 and Denver 134-127, loss at Detroit 80-118). Those results show the Knicks can score in bunches (134) but also had an off night (80). Indiana has lost three straight (104-122 vs Toronto, 99-105 vs Milwaukee, 122-131 vs Utah), surrendering 122, 105 and 131 points — a trend that points to defensive lapses and difficulty stopping opponents in recent outings.
Looking at the expected starters: the Knicks’ five average an offensive rating of 121.26, defensive rating of 113.20, and average points made of 18.28 per starter — a strong two-way profile led by Brunson (OFF 122.2) and Bridges (OFF 129.6). The Pacers’ projected five average an offensive rating of 108.00, defensive rating of 117.80, and average points made of 14.68 per starter, with Pascal Siakam the primary scoring option (AVG 23.62, OFF 111.3). The Knicks hold a clear edge in starting-unit efficiency on both ends.
Final Prediction
New York’s higher starting-unit offensive rating and better defensive rating give them the edge in this matchup. Key factor to watch: whether Indiana can slow the Knicks’ starters enough to offset the sizable home-team spread.
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