NBA 2025-2026: Boston Celtics vs Chicago Bulls: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Boston Celtics
Home Team
75.3%
VS
Chicago Bulls
Away Team
24.7%
Key Prediction Insights
The model picks the Boston Celtics to win with a 75.3% probability. Expected starting fives — Boston Celtics: Baylor Scheierman, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Sam Hauser, Neemias Queta. Chicago Bulls: Anfernee Simons, Isaac Okoro, Jaden Ivey, Matas Buzelis, Guerschon Yabusele.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The projected combined score is 220.87, suggesting a moderately fast, fairly high-scoring game rather than a grind-it-out defensive slugfest. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 9.14, which implies roughly a 9-point advantage for the home team — a cushion that would strongly favor whoever is hosting, and lines up with Boston as the likely favorite.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
220.9
Most likely outcome: 220 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Boston Celtics - Chicago Bulls)
9.1
Most likely outcome: 9 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Game Analysis
Boston is 2-1 over the last three games, beating Miami 98-96 and Houston 114-93 but losing to New York 89-111. Those results show the Celtics can both win tight defensive games and put up quality offensive numbers, though they struggled offensively in the Knicks loss. Chicago is in a rough patch, 0-3 in the last three with losses to Brooklyn (115-123), Denver (120-136) and Toronto (107-123), and those scores underline defensive issues: they’ve been surrendering a lot of points recently.
Looking at the projected starters, Boston’s five average an offensive rating of 117.76 and a defensive rating of 113.22, with an average of 13.86 points made per starter. Chicago’s projected five average an offensive rating of 114.64 and a defensive rating of 123.42, with an average of 13.21 points made per starter. Those numbers favor Boston — better offense and clearly stronger defense — while Chicago leans on individual scorers like Anfernee Simons (20.0 PPG) to keep pace.
Final Prediction
Boston’s higher offensive profile and markedly better defensive numbers give them the edge in this matchup. Key factor to watch: whether the Celtics’ defense can contain Anfernee Simons and prevent the Bulls from turning this into a shootout.
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