NBA 2025-2026: Denver Nuggets vs Memphis Grizzlies: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Denver Nuggets
Home Team
79.2%
VS
Memphis Grizzlies
Away Team
20.8%
Key Prediction Insights
The model picks the Denver Nuggets to win with a 79.2% probability. Expected starters — Denver: Jamal Murray (25.78 PTS), Christian Braun (9.72 PTS), Spencer Jones (5.96 PTS), Cameron Johnson (11.70 PTS), Nikola Jokić (28.76 PTS); Memphis: Cam Spencer (11.80 PTS), Jaylen Wells (12.00 PTS), Ty Jerome (19.80 PTS), Kyle Anderson (9.50 PTS), GG Jackson II (8.59 PTS).
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The projected combined score is 240.54 points, signaling a fast, high-scoring game with heavy offensive output expected. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 6.57 points, giving the home team roughly a 6.6-point edge; with Denver favored to win, that margin suggests they’d be expected to control the game by about one full possession.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
240.5
Most likely outcome: 240 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Denver Nuggets - Memphis Grizzlies)
6.6
Most likely outcome: 6 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Game Analysis
Denver has gone 1-2 in its last three games, beating Chicago 136-120 but losing close contests to Cleveland (117-119) and New York (127-134). Those scores show Denver can put up points in bunches (136) but has also given up high totals, so consistency on defense will be the difference. Memphis is on a three-game skid — narrow loss to Golden State (113-114) followed by two losses at Portland (115-122, 115-135) — struggling to stop opponents while scoring in the low-to-mid 110s.
Looking at the starters: Denver’s five average offensive rating is 124.10 and defensive rating is 118.52, with an average points made of 16.38 across those starters; Nikola Jokić’s 141.4 offensive rating and 28.76 scoring average stand out. Memphis’s starting five average offensive rating is 115.52 and defensive rating is 112.00, with an average points made of 12.34; Ty Jerome (135.6 offense, 19.8 PTS) and Cam Spencer (132.3 offense) are key scorers. Those rating and scoring gaps help explain Denver’s advantage.
Final Prediction
Denver’s higher offensive profile and Jokić’s elite production give them the edge in this matchup. Watch whether Denver can tighten defensively and whether Memphis can get consistent secondary scoring from Jerome and Spencer to stay competitive.
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