NBA 2025-2026: Philadelphia 76ers vs Atlanta Hawks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Philadelphia 76ers
Home Team
54.2%
VS
Atlanta Hawks
Away Team
45.8%
Key Prediction Insights
The model favors the Philadelphia 76ers to win with a 54.2% probability. Expected starting five — Philadelphia 76ers: Tyrese Maxey (OFF: 123.0, DEF: 115.4, AVG_POINTS_MADE: 28.903846153846157), VJ Edgecombe (OFF: 112.5, DEF: 116.0, AVG_POINTS_MADE: 14.88), Dominick Barlow (OFF: 130.9, DEF: 115.8, AVG_POINTS_MADE: 8.534883720930232), Kelly Oubre Jr. (OFF: 109.0, DEF: 116.7, AVG_POINTS_MADE: 13.90625), Adem Bona (OFF: 115.5, DEF: 114.1, AVG_POINTS_MADE: 4.177777777777778). Atlanta Hawks: Dyson Daniels (OFF: 113.2, DEF: 114.6, AVG_POINTS_MADE: 11.58490566037736), Nickeil Alexander-Walker (OFF: 110.8, DEF: 118.3, AVG_POINTS_MADE: 20.074074074074076), Jalen Johnson (OFF: 117.1, DEF: 112.3, AVG_POINTS_MADE: 23.28), Zaccharie Risacher (OFF: 102.6, DEF: 117.5, AVG_POINTS_MADE: 10.547619047619047), Onyeka Okongwu (OFF: 114.3, DEF: 114.7, AVG_POINTS_MADE: 16.24).
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The expected total points is 233.97, pointing to a fairly high-scoring game and a decent offensive pace from both sides. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 0.65, a very small edge for the home team that implies a close contest on paper.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
234.0
Most likely outcome: 234 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Philadelphia 76ers - Atlanta Hawks)
0.7
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Game Analysis
Philadelphia is 1-2 over the last three games, with two heavy losses (89-138 vs New York, 118-135 vs Portland) and a win 109-103 over Phoenix. Those blowout defeats highlight recent defensive lapses but also show they can close tighter games. Atlanta is on a three-game skid (107-110, 116-138, 119-126), scoring in the 100–120 range but struggling to stop opponents across those outings.
Looking at the starting fives, Philadelphia’s starters average an offensive rating of 118.18 and a defensive rating of 115.6, with their five combining for about 70.40 average points (14.08 per starter). Atlanta’s five average an offensive rating of 111.6 and a defensive rating of 115.48, combining for about 81.73 average points (16.35 per starter). That suggests Philadelphia has the edge in efficiency while Atlanta’s starters currently account for more raw scoring, and the similar defensive ratings imply the outcome may hinge on which offense executes better.
Final Prediction
The 76ers’ higher average offensive rating and the narrow model edge give them the predicted win. Watch Tyrese Maxey’s scoring (AVG_POINTS_MADE: 28.903846153846157) and whether Philadelphia can clean up the defensive issues that led to recent blowouts — that will likely decide the game.
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