NBA 2025-2026: New Orleans Pelicans vs Philadelphia 76ers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
New Orleans Pelicans
Home Team
35.0%
VS
Philadelphia 76ers
Away Team
65.0%
Key Prediction Insights
The model picks the Philadelphia 76ers to win with a 65.0% probability. Expected starting fives — New Orleans: Bryce McGowens, Herbert Jones, Saddiq Bey, Zion Williamson, Derik Queen; Philadelphia: Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Dominick Barlow, Kelly Oubre Jr., Andre Drummond.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The expected combined total is 232.86 points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring game and a faster pace than a typical low-scoring outing. The expected spread (Home - Away) is -4.29, meaning the road team, the 76ers, are favored by about 4.3 points.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
232.9
Most likely outcome: 232 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (New Orleans Pelicans - Philadelphia 76ers)
-4.3
Most likely outcome: -5 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Game Analysis
New Orleans is 1-2 in its last three games with a blowout loss to Milwaukee (118-139), a 111-123 loss to Miami, and a strong 120-94 win over Sacramento. Those results show swingy defense: capable of lockdown (94 allowed) but also vulnerable (139, 123 allowed). Philadelphia is on a three-game losing streak (107-117 vs Atlanta, 89-138 vs New York, 118-135 vs Portland), struggling to stop opponents consistently and posting a rough defensive stretch.
Looking at the expected starters, New Orleans’ five average OFFENSIVE RATING is about 115.96 and DEFENSIVE RATING about 119.74, with an average POINTS MADE ~13.53. Philadelphia’s projected five average OFFENSIVE RATING ~117.42 and DEFENSIVE RATING ~114.96, with average POINTS MADE ~14.64. The 76ers’ group has a slightly better offensive profile and notably better average defensive rating, which helps explain their advantage despite recent losses. Tyrese Maxey’s 28.89 points per game stands out as a primary scoring force; Zion Williamson’s 21.85 PPG will be New Orleans’ counter.
Final Prediction
Philadelphia’s combination of higher average offensive rating and stronger average defensive rating gives them the projected edge. Watch Tyrese Maxey’s scoring and how the 76ers handle Zion — those matchups will likely decide the margin.
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