NBA 2025-2026: Minnesota Timberwolves vs Philadelphia 76ers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Minnesota Timberwolves
Home Team
63.5%
VS
Philadelphia 76ers
Away Team
36.5%
Key Prediction Insights
The model picks the Minnesota Timberwolves to win (63.5% probability). Expected starting fives — Minnesota: Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, Naz Reid. Philadelphia: Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Dominick Barlow, Kelly Oubre Jr., Joel Embiid.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The game’s expected total is 234.09 points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring affair and a faster pace on both ends. The expected spread is Home - Away = 6.63, which nominally gives the home team a 6.63-point advantage even though the prediction favors Minnesota.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
234.1
Most likely outcome: 234 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Minnesota Timberwolves - Philadelphia 76ers)
6.6
Most likely outcome: 6 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
New to probability charts?
Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Game Analysis
Minnesota arrives riding a three-game winning streak: 122-111, 133-109, and 138-116. That string shows sustained scoring — and consistency from their starters. Philadelphia has lost three straight: 111-126, 107-117, and a heavy 89-138 loss, indicating recent struggles on both ends and an inconsistent offense over that stretch.
Looking at the starting fives, Minnesota’s average offensive rating is 116.80, defensive rating 113.50, and average points made per starter about 18.71. Philadelphia’s starters average an offensive rating of 117.84, defensive rating 115.76, and average points made about 18.63. Philly’s unit is marginally more efficient offensively on paper, but Minnesota has the edge on defense and more recent form. Note the high scoring outputs from Anthony Edwards (29.53) and Tyrese Maxey (28.85), with Joel Embiid still a major factor at 26.61 points on average.
Final Prediction
Minnesota’s momentum, a slightly better team defensive profile, and balanced scoring give them the edge despite the spread favoring the home team. Key factor to watch: how Minnesota limits Joel Embiid and whether the Edwards–Maxey matchup turns into a deciding scoring duel.
Get Daily NBA Predictions
Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven NBA predictions directly on your phone.
Join Our Telegram Channel