NBA 2025-2026: Chicago Bulls vs Charlotte Hornets: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Chicago Bulls
Home Team
33.1%
VS
Charlotte Hornets
Away Team
66.9%
Key Prediction Insights
Charlotte Hornets are projected to win (66.9% probability). Expected starting fives — Chicago Bulls: Josh Giddey (OFF 111.7 / DEF 116.8 / PTS 18.08), Isaac Okoro (OFF 115.3 / DEF 120.9 / PTS 9.20), Matas Buzelis (OFF 108.7 / DEF 116.9 / PTS 14.97), Guerschon Yabusele (OFF 114.9 / DEF 120.1 / PTS 10.57), Jalen Smith (OFF 120.1 / DEF 115.2 / PTS 10.28). Charlotte Hornets: LaMelo Ball (OFF 113.8 / DEF 115.6 / PTS 19.44), Brandon Miller (OFF 110.2 / DEF 114.5 / PTS 20.51), Kon Knueppel (OFF 124.9 / DEF 117.5 / PTS 19.25), Miles Bridges (OFF 120.6 / DEF 117.0 / PTS 18.17), Moussa Diabaté (OFF 135.9 / DEF 112.8 / PTS 8.22).
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The projected combined total is 227.41 points, pointing to a fairly up-tempo, offense-friendly game rather than a defensive slog. The expected spread is Home − Away = −7.75, meaning the away team is favored by about 7.75 points; given the pick for Charlotte, that advantage would go to them if they are the away side.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
227.4
Most likely outcome: 227 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Chicago Bulls - Charlotte Hornets)
-7.8
Most likely outcome: -8 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Game Analysis
Chicago enters on a three-game skid (losses: 99-105 vs Knicks, 110-126 vs Pistons, 101-110 vs Raptors). They’ve averaged 103.33 points while allowing 113.67 over that stretch, suggesting offensive struggles and defensive lapses. Charlotte is 1-2 in their last three (129-112 win vs Wizards, 113-118 loss vs Cavs, 101-105 loss vs Rockets) and has averaged 114.33 points while allowing 111.67, showing they can score in bunches and remain competitive.
Looking at the projected starters, Chicago’s five average an OFF rating of 114.14, DEF rating of 117.98, and combined average points made per starter of 12.62 — a middling offensive group leaning toward defensive vulnerability. Charlotte’s starting five averages OFF 121.08, DEF 115.48, and 17.12 average points made per starter, indicating stronger scoring punch and slightly better team defense among the projected five. Those edges in scoring and offensive efficiency help explain the Hornets’ advantage.
Final Prediction
Charlotte’s higher offensive numbers and greater per-starter scoring give them the edge in this matchup. Watch whether Chicago can stop the Hornets’ scoring from their starters — that defensive response will decide if the Bulls can keep it close.
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