NBA 2025-2026: New Orleans Pelicans vs Golden State Warriors: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
New Orleans Pelicans
Home Team
38.0%
VS
Golden State Warriors
Away Team
62.0%
Key Prediction Insights
Golden State Warriors are projected to win (62.0% probability). Expected starting fives: New Orleans Pelicans — Herbert Jones, Saddiq Bey, Zion Williamson, DeAndre Jordan, Derik Queen; Golden State Warriors — De'Anthony Melton, Pat Spencer, Moses Moody, Draymond Green, Gui Santos.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 229.76 points, signaling a fairly high-scoring game and a brisk offensive pace from both clubs. The spread (Home - Away = -3.21) implies the away team is favored by about 3.2 points, which aligns with Golden State being the projected winner and gives the visitors a modest edge.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
229.8
Most likely outcome: 229 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (New Orleans Pelicans - Golden State Warriors)
-3.2
Most likely outcome: -4 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Game Analysis
Both teams come in with two losses in their last three games but each posted an impressive win: New Orleans beat Philadelphia 126-111, while Golden State beat Denver 128-117. New Orleans split a lopsided loss to Milwaukee (118-139) and a 111-123 loss to Miami; Golden State followed losses to Boston (110-121) and San Antonio (113-126) with that Denver victory. The recent results show streakiness on both sides and the potential for high-scoring swings.
Looking at the five-man averages, New Orleans’ expected starters hold a combined average offensive rating of 116.36, defensive rating of 118.18, and average points made per starter of 12.97. Golden State’s projected starters average an offensive rating of 104.30, defensive rating of 113.46, and 8.95 points made per starter. That suggests New Orleans’ starters bring more scoring punch, while Golden State’s group looks stronger on defense overall.
Final Prediction
Golden State’s edge comes from the projected defensive balance and recent ability to put up 128 points in a win, translating to the 62.0% prediction. Key thing to watch: how New Orleans’ higher-scoring starters, led by Zion Williamson (21.83 PPG average), match up against Golden State’s tighter defensive ratings.
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