NBA 2025-2026: Toronto Raptors vs Oklahoma City Thunder: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Toronto Raptors
Home Team
49.6%
VS
Oklahoma City Thunder
Away Team
50.4%
Key Prediction Insights
Oklahoma City Thunder are the pick to win (50.4% probability). Expected starting fives: Toronto — Immanuel Quickley, Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett, Collin Murray-Boyles, Scottie Barnes; Oklahoma City — Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 219.58 points, indicating a game around league-average to slightly above-average scoring and a steady pace. The expected spread is Home - Away = -1.29, which gives the Thunder roughly a 1.29-point edge as the away team.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
219.6
Most likely outcome: 219 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Toronto Raptors - Oklahoma City Thunder)
-1.3
Most likely outcome: -2 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Game Analysis
Both teams enter in similar form over their last three games (each 2-1). Toronto beat Milwaukee 122-94 and Chicago 110-101 before a 95-113 loss at Detroit, showing they can score in bunches but also have nights where they struggle to keep opponents off the board. Oklahoma City beat Cleveland 121-113 and Brooklyn 105-86, then fell 93-110 to Milwaukee; the Thunder have shown strong two-way outings (notably holding Brooklyn to 86) but have also had defensive lapses.
Looking at the expected starters, Toronto’s five average an offensive rating of 115.48 and a defensive rating of 112.52, with average points made per starter of 16.885. Oklahoma City’s projected starters average an offensive rating of 117.68 and a defensive rating of 107.82, with average points made per starter of 11.176. The Thunder’s group registers higher offensive efficiency and noticeably better team defense by these numbers, while Toronto’s starters bring more individual scoring volume.
Final Prediction
The Thunder’s edge comes from better offensive and defensive ratings among their projected starters, which is why they’re favored despite a close forecast. Watch how Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein impact both ends — their efficiency and rim presence could be the deciding factor.
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