NBA 2025-2026: Toronto Raptors vs San Antonio Spurs: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Toronto Raptors
Home Team
44.1%
VS
San Antonio Spurs
Away Team
55.9%
Key Prediction Insights
San Antonio Spurs are the pick to win (55.9% probability). Expected starting fives: Toronto Raptors — Immanuel Quickley, Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl. San Antonio Spurs — De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 227.82 points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring game and a steady offensive pace. The expected spread is Home - Away = -3.98, meaning the Spurs are about 4-point favorites despite being the road team, giving San Antonio a small edge.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
227.8
Most likely outcome: 227 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Toronto Raptors - San Antonio Spurs)
-4.0
Most likely outcome: -4 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Game Analysis
Toronto is 2-1 in their last three (loss 107-116 to OKC, wins 122-94 over Milwaukee and 110-101 over Chicago), averaging 113.0 points while allowing 103.67. Those results show Toronto can both score in bunches (122) and tighten up on defense (holding Milwaukee to 94). San Antonio enters on a three-game winning streak (114-103, 139-122, 121-94) and is averaging 124.67 points in that span, carrying strong offensive momentum into this matchup.
Looking at the projected starters, both groups share the same average offensive rating of 116.22. San Antonio holds the defensive advantage with an average defensive rating of 109.94 versus Toronto’s 112.02, largely influenced by Victor Wembanyama’s 100.3 defensive rating. Scoring across the five starters is nearly even — Toronto’s starters average 17.11 points each and San Antonio’s average 17.07 — but Wembanyama’s 24.23 points and the Spurs’ recent offensive burst tilt the matchup.
Final Prediction
The Spurs’ three-game form and the defensive edge in the starting five give them the advantage in a high-scoring affair. Watch how Toronto handles Victor Wembanyama inside and whether San Antonio can sustain the recent offensive heat.
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