NBA 2025-2026: Utah Jazz vs New Orleans Pelicans: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Utah Jazz
Home Team
41.7%
VS
New Orleans Pelicans
Away Team
58.3%
Key Prediction Insights
The pick: New Orleans Pelicans to win (58.3% probability). Expected starting fives — Utah Jazz: Keyonte George, Cody Williams, John Konchar, Ace Bailey, Kyle Filipowski. New Orleans Pelicans: Herbert Jones, Saddiq Bey, Zion Williamson, DeAndre Jordan, Derik Queen.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 239.5 points, signaling a fast-paced, high-scoring affair if both teams execute. The spread (Home - Away = -5.88) favors the Pelicans by about 5.9 points on the road, giving New Orleans a clear edge in betting markets.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
239.5
Most likely outcome: 239 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Utah Jazz - New Orleans Pelicans)
-5.9
Most likely outcome: -6 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
New to probability charts?
Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Game Analysis
Utah comes in on a three-game skid (losses 118-129 to New Orleans, 105-125 to Houston, 114-123 to Memphis) and has been repeatedly outscored this stretch. New Orleans is rolling the other way with three straight wins (129-118 over Utah, 113-109 over Golden State, 126-111 over Philadelphia), showing consistent offense. Those recent box scores point to New Orleans scoring well while Utah’s defense has struggled to contain opponents.
Looking at the expected starting units, Utah’s five average to an offensive rating of 103.14 and a defensive rating of 120.44, with an average of 11.01 points made per starter. New Orleans’ projected starters average a 115.04 offensive rating and a 116.96 defensive rating, with 13.02 points made per starter. The Pelicans’ starters bring more scoring punch (notably Zion’s 123.5 offensive rating and 21.886 points made average) and a slightly better team defensive profile than Utah’s unit.
Final Prediction
New Orleans gets the nod because of superior recent form and stronger starting-five numbers on both ends. Watch Zion Williamson’s scoring and how Utah defends the paint — that matchup will likely decide the margin.
Get Daily NBA Predictions
Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven NBA predictions directly on your phone.
Join Our Telegram Channel