NBA 2025-2026: Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Boston Celtics
Home Team
64.2%
VS
Philadelphia 76ers
Away Team
35.8%
Key Prediction Insights
The pick: Boston Celtics to win (64.2% probability). Expected starting five — Boston: Baylor Scheierman, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Sam Hauser, Neemias Queta. Philadelphia: Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Dominick Barlow, Kelly Oubre Jr., Andre Drummond.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 225.07 points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring game with an up-tempo feel and plenty of offense on display. The expected spread is Home - Away = 5.65, giving the home team a 5.65-point edge (wherever this matchup is played).
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
225.1
Most likely outcome: 225 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Boston Celtics - Philadelphia 76ers)
5.7
Most likely outcome: 5 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Game Analysis
Boston is 2-1 over the last three games with a dominant 148-111 win over Brooklyn, a low-output 84-103 loss to Denver, and a 97-81 win over Phoenix. Those results show Boston can blow teams out offensively but also struggle to score against elite defense. Philadelphia is 3-0, putting up 124-117 vs Miami, 135-114 vs Indiana, and 135-108 vs Minnesota — a clear hot streak offensively across three strong wins.
Looking at the projected starting units, Boston’s five average an OFFENSIVE RATING of 119.34, a DEFENSIVE RATING of 112.62, and average POINTS MADE of 13.89. Philadelphia’s starters average an OFFENSIVE RATING of 117.92, a DEFENSIVE RATING of 114.66, and average POINTS MADE of 14.79. Boston’s group has a slight edge in offensive efficiency and a better defensive rating; Philly’s starters profile as the more prolific scorers led by Tyrese Maxey (29.07017543859649) while Jaylen Brown (29.07547169811321) mirrors that scoring punch for Boston.
Final Prediction
Boston’s combination of marginally better efficiency and a more consistent defensive rating gives them the edge in this projection. Key thing to watch: the Brown (29.075...) vs. Maxey (29.070...) scoring matchup and how well Boston’s defense contains Philly’s hot offense.
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