NBA 2025-2026: Indiana Pacers vs Memphis Grizzlies: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Indiana Pacers
Home Team
40.6%
VS
Memphis Grizzlies
Away Team
59.4%
Key Prediction Insights
I project the Memphis Grizzlies to win this one with a 59.4% probability. Expected starting fives: Indiana — Andrew Nembhard, Ben Sheppard, Jarace Walker, Obi Toppin, Jay Huff. Memphis — Javon Small, Scotty Pippen Jr., Jaylen Wells, GG Jackson II, Olivier-Maxence Prosper.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 236.38 points, suggesting an up-tempo affair or porous defense on both ends. The expected spread (Home - Away) is -3.38, which implies the away team is favored by about 3.4 points — a modest edge in Memphis’ direction aligned with the winner projection.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
236.4
Most likely outcome: 236 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Indiana Pacers - Memphis Grizzlies)
-3.4
Most likely outcome: -4 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Game Analysis
Indiana arrives on a three-game losing streak (losses 109-133, 114-135, 130-134). Those results show the Pacers giving up 133, 135 and 134 points in the last three games, indicating persistent defensive problems. Offensively they still score, but recent margins have been lopsided. Memphis is 1-2 over its last three (a 124-105 win, then losses 112-133 and 114-123). That includes a convincing 19-point win over Dallas, but also two games where they surrendered 123+ points.
Looking at the expected starters: Indiana’s five average an offensive rating of 106.48, a defensive rating of 118.18, and 11.08 average points made per starter. Memphis’ projected five average an offensive rating of 105.58, a defensive rating of 113.68, and 9.82 average points made per starter. Indiana’s group shows a slight offensive edge but a significantly worse defensive rating; Memphis’ starters present the better collective defensive mark (113.68 vs 118.18), with GG Jackson II’s defensive rating of 95.3 a notable outlier in that unit.
Final Prediction
Memphis’ defensive advantage among the projected starters and a recent big win give them the edge in a close contest. Key factor to watch: can Indiana stop the bleeding on defense (they’ve allowed 133, 135, 134 recently) or will Memphis’ defense force turnovers and limit second-chance points?
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