NBA 2025-2026: Los Angeles Clippers vs New Orleans Pelicans: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Los Angeles Clippers
Home Team
64.2%
VS
New Orleans Pelicans
Away Team
35.8%
Key Prediction Insights
The model picks the Los Angeles Clippers to win with a 64.2% probability. Expected starting fives are Los Angeles Clippers — Kris Dunn (O-Rtg 117.1, D-Rtg 117.1, Avg Pts 7.91), Derrick Jones Jr. (125.3, 118.7, 10.69), Kawhi Leonard (122.2, 112.0, 28.05), John Collins (122.2, 117.3, 13.75), Brook Lopez (92.1, 115.0, 7.10); New Orleans Pelicans — Dejounte Murray (97.5, 109.0, 15.00), Herbert Jones (103.2, 116.8, 9.08), Trey Murphy III (121.7, 119.8, 22.10), Zion Williamson (124.6, 118.7, 21.49), DeAndre Jordan (114.8, 109.0, 4.67).
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The expected combined total is 226.81 points, indicating a moderately high-scoring game and a decent pace on both ends. The expected spread (Home − Away) is 7.02 points, giving a roughly seven-point edge to the home team — if the Clippers are the home side, they’re favored to cover that margin.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
226.8
Most likely outcome: 226 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Los Angeles Clippers - New Orleans Pelicans)
7.0
Most likely outcome: 7 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Game Analysis
Los Angeles enters on a three-game skid: losses 88–94 vs Minnesota, 109–111 vs Orlando, and 122–125 vs the Lakers — close games but three straight defeats. New Orleans is rolling with three straight wins: 115–105 and 129–118 (both vs Utah) and 113–109 vs Golden State, showing an upward trend on offense and results over the last week.
Looking at the projected starters, the Clippers’ five average offensive rating is 115.78 and defensive rating 116.02 with an average of about 13.50 points made per starter; Kawhi’s 28.05 scoring mark stands out. The Pelicans’ projected five average offensive rating is 112.36 and defensive rating 114.66 with about 14.47 points made per starter; Trey Murphy (22.10) and Zion (21.49) carry much of their scoring punch. Those numbers suggest the Clippers have a slight offensive edge while New Orleans is marginally stronger on defense.
Final Prediction
The Clippers’ combination of individual scoring (notably Kawhi) and a higher group offensive rating gives them the edge in this projection. Key factor to watch: how well the Clippers limit Trey Murphy and Zion, and whether Kawhi can sustain his scoring to tilt a closely matched game.
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