NBA 2025-2026: Los Angeles Lakers vs New Orleans Pelicans: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Los Angeles Lakers
Home Team
77.1%
VS
New Orleans Pelicans
Away Team
22.9%
Key Prediction Insights
The Los Angeles Lakers are the pick to win (77.1% probability). Expected starting fives: Los Angeles Lakers — Luka Dončić, Marcus Smart, Austin Reaves, LeBron James, Deandre Ayton; New Orleans Pelicans — Dejounte Murray, Herbert Jones, Trey Murphy III, Zion Williamson, DeAndre Jordan.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 238.77 points, signaling a high-scoring game and likely uptempo possessions. The expected spread is 9.64 points (home minus away), giving the Lakers roughly a 9.64-point advantage on their home floor.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
238.8
Most likely outcome: 238 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Los Angeles Lakers - New Orleans Pelicans)
9.6
Most likely outcome: 9 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Game Analysis
Los Angeles comes in with two convincing wins — 128-104 over Sacramento and 129-101 over Golden State — before a close 110-113 loss to Phoenix, showing they can score in bunches and bounce back quickly. New Orleans split their last three with a heavy 117-137 loss to the Clippers sandwiched around two solid wins against Utah (115-105 and 129-118), suggesting streaky offensive performances and some defensive inconsistency.
Looking at the projected starters, the Lakers’ five average out to an offensive rating of 118.26, a defensive rating of 116.62, and average points made of 20.07 per starter. The Pelicans’ projected five average offensive rating is 114.96, defensive rating 117.64, and average points made 14.46 per starter. Those numbers point to a Lakers edge in overall offense and a slight defensive advantage, with individual firepower from Luka Dončić (32.48 points average) and Deandre Ayton (OFFENSIVE RATING 125.5) likely to matter.
Final Prediction
The Lakers’ combination of higher offensive upside (118.26) and more consistent recent scoring gives them the edge. Watch how well New Orleans contains Luka and Ayton early — that matchup control will decide if the Pelicans can close the roughly 9.64-point gap.
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