NBA 2025-2026: Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Houston Rockets
Home Team
70.4%
VS
Golden State Warriors
Away Team
29.6%
Key Prediction Insights
I project the Houston Rockets to win this one with a 70.4% probability. Expected starting fives: Houston — Amen Thompson (ORTG 120.8 / DRTG 113.4, 17.3966 PPG), Jabari Smith Jr. (123.8 / 113.7, 15.4912 PPG), Kevin Durant (124.8 / 114.6, 26.2632 PPG), Tari Eason (115.1 / 111.4, 11.4211 PPG), Alperen Şengün (114.7 / 110.8, 20.4528 PPG). Golden State — De'Anthony Melton (98.3 / 112.5, 12.4242 PPG), Brandin Podziemski (113.9 / 114.3, 12.3934 PPG), Draymond Green (99.8 / 113.6, 8.38 PPG), Gui Santos (116.9 / 112.8, 6.74 PPG), Al Horford (114.3 / 111.3, 8.2051 PPG).
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model pegs the game total at 225.94 points, suggesting a moderately high-scoring affair with an uptempo look. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 9.1 points in favor of the home team; combined with the Rockets as the favorite, that margin implies a sizable edge for Houston in this projection.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
225.9
Most likely outcome: 225 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Houston Rockets - Golden State Warriors)
9.1
Most likely outcome: 9 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Game Analysis
Houston is 2-1 over the last three: wins 123-118 vs Washington and 113-108 vs Orlando, with a 105-115 loss to Miami — showing they can both score in the 110–120 range and close tight games. Golden State is 1-2, coming off a 133-112 win over Memphis but two heavier losses (101-114 vs Clippers, 101-129 vs Lakers), indicating offensive upside but recent defensive lapses.
Looking at the projected starting fives, Houston’s group averages an offensive rating of 119.84, defensive rating of 112.78, and 18.205 PPG per starter — led by Kevin Durant (26.2632 PPG) and Alperen Şengün (20.4528 PPG). Golden State’s starters average an offensive rating of 108.64, defensive rating of 112.9, and 9.629 PPG per starter. The Rockets’ superior offensive numbers and higher scoring from their starters should be the deciding factor.
Final Prediction
Houston’s edge comes down to stronger starting-five offense and more consistent recent results. Key thing to watch: can Golden State contain Kevin Durant (26.2632 PPG) and Alperen Şengün (20.4528 PPG) enough to overturn that projected nine-point gap.
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