NBA 2025-2026: Phoenix Suns vs Chicago Bulls: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Phoenix Suns
Home Team
71.1%
VS
Chicago Bulls
Away Team
28.9%
Key Prediction Insights
The model favors the Phoenix Suns to win (71.1% probability). Expected starting fives — Phoenix Suns: Collin Gillespie, Devin Booker, Jalen Green, Royce O'Neale, Oso Ighodaro; Chicago Bulls: Josh Giddey, Tre Jones, Isaac Okoro, Matas Buzelis, Guerschon Yabusele.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The projected total is 220.97 points, suggesting a moderately high-scoring affair and a game that could open up if either team gets hot offensively. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 5.75, which gives a 5.75-point edge to the home team; despite that home advantage, the Suns remain the predicted winner.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
221.0
Most likely outcome: 220 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Phoenix Suns - Chicago Bulls)
5.8
Most likely outcome: 5 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Game Analysis
Phoenix arrive 2-1 over their last three: wins over Sacramento (114-103) and the Lakers (113-110), and a loss to Boston (81-97). Chicago is 1-2: a solid win at Milwaukee (120-97) sandwiched between losses to Portland (112-121) and Oklahoma City (108-116). The Suns' scores show some offensive variance — two 110+ efforts and a low 81 — while the Bulls have averaged higher scoring across those three games.
Looking at the projected starters, Phoenix’s average offensive rating is 112.22 and defensive rating 113.82, with their five combining for 13.49 average points made per starter. Chicago’s starters average a 115.56 offensive rating and a 117.40 defensive rating, with 13.06 points made per starter. That paints Chicago as slightly more potent on offense in the starting five but noticeably weaker on defense compared to Phoenix.
Final Prediction
The Suns’ projected defensive edge among starters and more consistent recent results give them the advantage. Key factor to watch: Devin Booker’s scoring (24.55555555555556 average) against the Bulls’ defensive group — if Booker finds rhythm, Phoenix’s win probability will look justified.
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