NBA 2025-2026: Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Boston Celtics

Home Team
89.4%
VS

Dallas Mavericks

Away Team
10.6%
2025-2026 Season

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Baylor Scheierman
OR
111.4
DR
113.0
PTS
4.6
VS
Max Christie
OR
114.8
DR
117.8
PTS
13.1
SG
Derrick White
OR
118.5
DR
112.6
PTS
17.3
VS
Cooper Flagg
OR
108.6
DR
113.7
PTS
20.3
SF
Jaylen Brown
OR
113.9
DR
113.7
PTS
28.9
VS
Khris Middleton
OR
104.9
DR
120.9
PTS
12.9
PF
Jayson Tatum
OR
0.0
DR
0.0
PTS
0.0
VS
P.J. Washington
OR
101.9
DR
112.4
PTS
14.3
C
Neemias Queta
OR
135.9
DR
108.1
PTS
9.9
VS
Dwight Powell
OR
111.7
DR
114.8
PTS
3.3
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

The pick: Boston Celtics to win (Probability: 89.4%). Expected starting five — Boston Celtics: Baylor Scheierman, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Neemias Queta. Expected starting five — Dallas Mavericks: Max Christie, Cooper Flagg, Khris Middleton, P.J. Washington, Dwight Powell.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 213.19 points, suggesting a moderately paced game with scoring available on both ends. The expected spread is Boston by 11.63 points (home - away), giving Boston a sizable advantage and implying they should control tempo and margin.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 213.2 Most likely outcome: 213 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Boston Celtics - Dallas Mavericks) 11.6 Most likely outcome: 11 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Boston’s Elo has ticked up recently while Dallas’s Elo has fallen sharply over the last five games.

Boston Celtics

1615.7 +4.0 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-04 Charlotte Hornets 1615.7 -15.0
2026-03-02 Milwaukee Bucks 1630.7 +7.4
2026-03-01 Philadelphia 76ers 1623.3 +7.8
2026-02-27 Brooklyn Nets 1615.5 +3.8
2026-02-25 Denver Nuggets 1611.7 —

Dallas Mavericks

1383.0 -28.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-05 Orlando Magic 1383.0 -5.6
2026-03-03 Charlotte Hornets 1388.6 -5.8
2026-03-01 Oklahoma City Thunder 1394.4 -4.3
2026-02-27 Memphis Grizzlies 1398.7 -12.8
2026-02-26 Sacramento Kings 1411.5 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Boston Celtics

3-2 in last 5
L W W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Charlotte Hornets 89 118 -29
Milwaukee Bucks 108 81 +27
Philadelphia 76ers 114 98 +16
Brooklyn Nets 148 111 +37
Denver Nuggets 84 103 -19

Dallas Mavericks

0-5 in last 5
L L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Orlando Magic 114 115 -1
Charlotte Hornets 90 117 -27
Oklahoma City Thunder 87 100 -13
Memphis Grizzlies 105 124 -19
Sacramento Kings 121 130 -9

Game Analysis

Boston enters 2-1 over the last three, coming off wins over Milwaukee (108-81) and Philadelphia (114-98) before a loss at Charlotte (89-118); the Celtics look resilient on both ends despite the recent hiccup. Dallas is on a three-game skid (losses to Orlando 114-115, Charlotte 90-117, Oklahoma City 87-100) and has struggled to close games and stop opponents. Looking at the projected starting fives, Boston’s group averages an offensive rating of 95.94, a defensive rating of 89.48, and 12.14 average points made per starter; Neemias Queta’s 135.9 offensive rating is an outlier and Boston’s defense number stands out. Dallas’s projected five average offensive rating is 108.38, defensive rating 115.92, and 12.78 average points made per starter — they bring more individual scoring lift but a noticeably higher defensive rating.

Final Prediction

Boston’s recent form, positive Elo momentum, and the defensive profile of their projected five give them the clear edge in this matchup. Watch whether Boston’s defense can contain Dallas’s scoring options — that will be the key determinant of whether the Celtics cover the 11.63-point margin.

Get Daily NBA Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven NBA predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel