NBA 2025-2026: Houston Rockets vs Portland Trail Blazers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Houston Rockets

Home Team
78.0%
VS

Portland Trail Blazers

Away Team
22.0%
2025-2026 Season

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Amen Thompson
OR
121.1
DR
113.4
PTS
17.4
VS
Jrue Holiday
OR
116.8
DR
118.2
PTS
16.6
SG
Jabari Smith Jr.
OR
122.6
DR
113.7
PTS
15.3
VS
Kris Murray
OR
113.6
DR
118.2
PTS
6.0
SF
Kevin Durant
OR
124.7
DR
114.5
PTS
26.2
VS
Jerami Grant
OR
117.1
DR
120.2
PTS
18.8
PF
Tari Eason
OR
115.2
DR
111.5
PTS
11.4
VS
Toumani Camara
OR
111.3
DR
118.4
PTS
12.9
C
Alperen Şengün
OR
114.3
DR
110.9
PTS
20.4
VS
Donovan Clingan
OR
130.8
DR
112.8
PTS
11.8
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Houston Rockets — 78.0% probability to win. Expected starting five — Houston Rockets: Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Kevin Durant, Tari Eason, Alperen Şengün. Portland Trail Blazers: Jrue Holiday, Kris Murray, Jerami Grant, Toumani Camara, Donovan Clingan.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 233.28 points, which points to an uptempo game with both teams capable of putting up points in transition and in halfcourt sets. The expected spread (Home - Away = 7.45) implies roughly a 7½-point edge for the home side; overall this projects Houston as a comfortable favorite by about that margin.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 233.3 Most likely outcome: 233 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Houston Rockets - Portland Trail Blazers) 7.5 Most likely outcome: 7 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams show declining momentum recently, with Houston’s rating falling more sharply than Portland’s.

Houston Rockets

1565.3 -11.1 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-05 Golden State Warriors 1565.3 -12.3
2026-03-02 Washington Wizards 1577.6 +4.6
2026-02-28 Miami Heat 1573.0 -12.4
2026-02-26 Orlando Magic 1585.4 +9.0
2026-02-25 Sacramento Kings 1576.4 —

Portland Trail Blazers

1487.0 -4.1 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-04 Memphis Grizzlies 1487.0 +8.2
2026-03-01 Atlanta Hawks 1478.8 -11.8
2026-02-28 Charlotte Hornets 1490.6 -8.7
2026-02-26 Chicago Bulls 1499.3 +8.2
2026-02-24 Minnesota Timberwolves 1491.1 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Houston Rockets

3-2 in last 5
L W L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Golden State Warriors 113 115 -2
Washington Wizards 123 118 +5
Miami Heat 105 115 -10
Orlando Magic 113 108 +5
Sacramento Kings 128 97 +31

Portland Trail Blazers

2-3 in last 5
W L L W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Memphis Grizzlies 122 114 +8
Atlanta Hawks 101 135 -34
Charlotte Hornets 93 109 -16
Chicago Bulls 121 112 +9
Minnesota Timberwolves 121 124 -3

Game Analysis

Houston is 1-2 over the last three games (loss to Golden State 113-115, win over Washington 123-118, loss at Miami 105-115), alternating results but still producing scoring nights from key pieces. Portland is also 1-2 (win over Memphis 122-114, heavy loss to Atlanta 101-135, loss to Charlotte 93-109) and has been inconsistent on defense, evident in the blowout allowed to Atlanta. Looking at the projected starters, Houston’s five average an offensive rating of 119.58, a defensive rating of 112.80, and 18.14 average points made per starter — led by Kevin Durant’s 26.2. Portland’s projected five average an offensive rating of 117.92, a defensive rating of 117.56, and 13.22 average points made per starter, with Jerami Grant (18.8) and Jrue Holiday (16.6) leading the scoring. The Rockets’ edge in both offensive efficiency and team scoring from the starters should be decisive.

Final Prediction

Houston’s combination of higher offensive output and a sturdier defensive rating gives them the edge and explains the 78.0% projection. Watch how Portland defends Durant and how Alperen Şengün matches up inside — that matchup will likely determine whether the Rockets cover the ~7½-point margin.

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