NBA 2025-2026: Los Angeles Lakers vs Indiana Pacers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Los Angeles Lakers
Home Team
88.8%
VS
Indiana Pacers
Away Team
11.2%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Luka Dončić
OR
119.7
DR
114.1
PTS
32.3
VS
Andrew Nembhard
OR
111.2
DR
122.1
PTS
17.2
SG
Marcus Smart
OR
105.6
DR
117.1
PTS
9.5
VS
Aaron Nesmith
OR
104.1
DR
119.3
PTS
12.9
SF
Austin Reaves
OR
122.0
DR
117.8
PTS
23.6
VS
Jarace Walker
OR
100.2
DR
117.6
PTS
11.1
PF
LeBron James
OR
117.4
DR
116.9
PTS
21.4
VS
Pascal Siakam
OR
111.8
DR
117.5
PTS
24.0
C
Deandre Ayton
OR
123.2
DR
115.2
PTS
12.6
VS
Jay Huff
OR
110.4
DR
114.7
PTS
9.1
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Los Angeles Lakers are the pick to win (88.8% probability).
Expected starting five — Los Angeles Lakers: Luka Dončić, Marcus Smart, Austin Reaves, LeBron James, Deandre Ayton. Indiana Pacers: Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Jarace Walker, Pascal Siakam, Jay Huff.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 237.11 points, signaling a fairly high-scoring contest and a brisk tempo with both offenses likely to push the pace. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 12.2 points, giving a substantial edge to the home side; in our projection the Lakers are favored by roughly 12 points.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
237.1
Most likely outcome: 237 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Los Angeles Lakers - Indiana Pacers)
12.2
Most likely outcome: 12 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Los Angeles is trending upward (+14.6 over five games) while Indiana is on a clear downward slope (-29.1 over five games).
Los Angeles Lakers
1534.0
+14.6 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-05 | Denver Nuggets | 1534.0 | -9.7 |
| 2026-03-03 | New Orleans Pelicans | 1543.7 | +6.1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Sacramento Kings | 1537.6 | +4.9 |
| 2026-02-28 | Golden State Warriors | 1532.7 | +13.3 |
| 2026-02-26 | Phoenix Suns | 1519.4 | — |
Indiana Pacers
1332.6
-29.1 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | Los Angeles Clippers | 1332.6 | -5.1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Memphis Grizzlies | 1337.7 | -10.6 |
| 2026-02-26 | Charlotte Hornets | 1348.3 | -6.3 |
| 2026-02-24 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1354.6 | -7.1 |
| 2026-02-22 | Dallas Mavericks | 1361.7 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Los Angeles Lakers
3-2 in last 5
L
W
W
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Nuggets | 113 | 120 | -7 | |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 110 | 101 | +9 | |
| Sacramento Kings | 128 | 104 | +24 | |
| Golden State Warriors | 129 | 101 | +28 | |
| Phoenix Suns | 110 | 113 | -3 |
Indiana Pacers
0-5 in last 5
L
L
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Clippers | 107 | 130 | -23 | |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 106 | 125 | -19 | |
| Charlotte Hornets | 109 | 133 | -24 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 114 | 135 | -21 | |
| Dallas Mavericks | 130 | 134 | -4 |
Game Analysis
Los Angeles is 2-1 over the last three — a 128-104 win over Sacramento, 110-101 over New Orleans, and a 113-120 loss to Denver — showing they can score in bunches but can also be tested by top offenses. Indiana is 0-3 in the same span, dropping 107-130 to the Clippers, 106-125 to Memphis, and 109-133 to Charlotte, which highlights recent defensive breaks and difficulty containing high-volume scorers.
Looking at the expected fives, the Lakers’ starters average an offensive rating of 117.58 and a defensive rating of 116.22, with a combined average points-made per starter of 19.88. The Pacers’ projected starters average an offensive rating of 107.54 and defensive rating of 118.24, with 14.86 average points-made per starter. That tilt in offensive efficiency and scoring depth favors Los Angeles, especially given their higher-scoring top end.
Final Prediction
The Lakers’ stronger offense, recent upward momentum, and scoring depth explain the edge in this projection. Key factor to watch: how Indiana defends Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves — if they can’t slow those two, the gap will widen fast.
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