NBA 2025-2026: Phoenix Suns vs New Orleans Pelicans: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Phoenix Suns
Home Team
67.9%
VS
New Orleans Pelicans
Away Team
32.1%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Collin Gillespie
OR
120.9
DR
114.7
PTS
13.5
VS
Dejounte Murray
OR
109.5
DR
114.0
PTS
15.5
SG
Devin Booker
OR
117.3
DR
116.4
PTS
24.6
VS
Herbert Jones
OR
101.9
DR
117.4
PTS
8.8
SF
Jalen Green
OR
91.9
DR
111.0
PTS
13.4
VS
Saddiq Bey
OR
121.5
DR
121.1
PTS
17.4
PF
Royce O'Neale
OR
113.3
DR
114.1
PTS
9.9
VS
Trey Murphy III
OR
121.4
DR
119.7
PTS
21.9
C
Oso Ighodaro
OR
114.9
DR
111.9
PTS
5.9
VS
Zion Williamson
OR
123.5
DR
118.2
PTS
21.6
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Phoenix Suns are the pick to win (67.9% probability).
Expected starting five — Phoenix Suns: Collin Gillespie, Devin Booker, Jalen Green, Royce O'Neale, Oso Ighodaro.
Expected starting five — New Orleans Pelicans: Dejounte Murray, Herbert Jones, Saddiq Bey, Trey Murphy III, Zion Williamson.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model projects a combined total of 231.29 points, signaling a fairly high-scoring game and an uptempo profile from both clubs.
The expected spread (home - away) is 5.54, giving the home team a 5.54-point edge; overall the Suns are still the favored side in this matchup.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
231.3
Most likely outcome: 231 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Phoenix Suns - New Orleans Pelicans)
5.5
Most likely outcome: 5 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Phoenix’s rating has dipped over the last five games while New Orleans’ rating has inched upward.
Phoenix Suns
1529.5
-8.2 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-05 | Chicago Bulls | 1529.5 | -13.0 |
| 2026-03-03 | Sacramento Kings | 1542.5 | +4.5 |
| 2026-02-26 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1538.0 | +9.5 |
| 2026-02-24 | Boston Celtics | 1528.5 | -9.2 |
| 2026-02-22 | Portland Trail Blazers | 1537.7 | — |
New Orleans Pelicans
1416.5
+4.4 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-05 | Sacramento Kings | 1416.5 | +8.4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1408.1 | -6.1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Los Angeles Clippers | 1414.2 | -7.3 |
| 2026-02-28 | Utah Jazz | 1421.5 | +9.4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Utah Jazz | 1412.1 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Phoenix Suns
2-3 in last 5
L
W
W
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bulls | 103 | 105 | -2 | |
| Sacramento Kings | 114 | 103 | +11 | |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 113 | 110 | +3 | |
| Boston Celtics | 81 | 97 | -16 | |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 77 | 92 | -15 |
New Orleans Pelicans
3-2 in last 5
W
L
L
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento Kings | 133 | 123 | +10 | |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 101 | 110 | -9 | |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 117 | 137 | -20 | |
| Utah Jazz | 115 | 105 | +10 | |
| Utah Jazz | 129 | 118 | +11 |
Game Analysis
Phoenix is 2-1 over its last three with tight results: a 103-105 loss to Chicago, then wins of 114-103 over Sacramento and 113-110 over the Lakers — games decided by small margins. New Orleans is 1-2 in its last three, beating Sacramento 133-123 but dropping games 101-110 to the Lakers and 117-137 to the Clippers, the latter exposing some defensive lapses. Recent scorelines suggest Phoenix is grinding out close wins while New Orleans can score in bunches but has given up big totals.
Looking at the projected starting units, Phoenix’s five average an offensive rating of 111.66, defensive rating of 113.62, and combined average points made of 13.46 per starter; New Orleans’ projected five average an offensive rating of 115.56, defensive rating of 118.08, and 17.04 average points made per starter. The Pelicans offer more scoring from their starters, but Phoenix’s slightly better team defense and more balanced scoring distribution help explain the edge.
Final Prediction
The Suns’ balance and recent clutch wins give them the edge in a matchup where the Pelicans can light it up but also allow big opponent totals. Key factor to watch: whether New Orleans can tighten its defense (they’ve allowed 137 in a recent loss) or Phoenix can contain the Pelicans’ higher-scoring starters.
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