NBA 2025-2026: Atlanta Hawks vs Philadelphia 76ers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Atlanta Hawks

Home Team
77.1%
VS

Philadelphia 76ers

Away Team
22.9%
2025-2026 Season

Starting Five Matchup

PG
CJ McCollum
OR
111.6
DR
116.6
PTS
18.6
VS
Tyrese Maxey
OR
121.4
DR
115.2
PTS
28.9
SG
Dyson Daniels
OR
115.3
DR
113.1
PTS
11.4
VS
Quentin Grimes
OR
114.8
DR
117.4
PTS
12.5
SF
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
OR
111.7
DR
117.5
PTS
19.8
VS
Dominick Barlow
OR
125.9
DR
115.6
PTS
8.1
PF
Jalen Johnson
OR
115.6
DR
111.0
PTS
22.7
VS
Kelly Oubre Jr.
OR
109.3
DR
116.7
PTS
14.3
C
Onyeka Okongwu
OR
115.4
DR
113.1
PTS
16.2
VS
Adem Bona
OR
119.5
DR
114.1
PTS
4.6
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Atlanta Hawks are the pick to win (77.1% probability). Expected starting five — Atlanta Hawks: CJ McCollum, Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu. Expected starting five — Philadelphia 76ers: Tyrese Maxey, Quentin Grimes, Dominick Barlow, Kelly Oubre Jr., Adem Bona.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The expected total is 236.85 points, pointing to a fairly up-tempo game with both teams likely to push the pace and trade baskets. The expected spread (Home − Away) is 8.03, which gives an 8.03-point edge to the home team.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 236.8 Most likely outcome: 236 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Atlanta Hawks - Philadelphia 76ers) 8.0 Most likely outcome: 8 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Atlanta’s power rating is clearly rising while Philadelphia’s has been essentially flat-to-falling over the last five games.

Atlanta Hawks

1515.5 +37.1 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-04 Milwaukee Bucks 1515.5 +10.4
2026-03-01 Portland Trail Blazers 1505.1 +11.8
2026-02-26 Washington Wizards 1493.3 +7.5
2026-02-24 Washington Wizards 1485.8 +7.4
2026-02-22 Brooklyn Nets 1478.4 —

Philadelphia 76ers

1514.3 -2.2 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-04 Utah Jazz 1514.3 +4.7
2026-03-03 San Antonio Spurs 1509.6 -8.9
2026-03-01 Boston Celtics 1518.5 -7.8
2026-02-26 Miami Heat 1526.3 +9.8
2026-02-24 Indiana Pacers 1516.5 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Atlanta Hawks

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Milwaukee Bucks 131 113 +18
Portland Trail Blazers 135 101 +34
Washington Wizards 126 96 +30
Washington Wizards 119 98 +21
Brooklyn Nets 115 104 +11

Philadelphia 76ers

3-2 in last 5
W L L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Utah Jazz 106 102 +4
San Antonio Spurs 91 131 -40
Boston Celtics 98 114 -16
Miami Heat 124 117 +7
Indiana Pacers 135 114 +21

Game Analysis

Atlanta arrives on a three-game winning streak with convincing margins: 131–113 over Milwaukee, 135–101 over Portland, and 126–96 over Washington. Those results show the Hawks rolling on both ends lately. Philadelphia has been inconsistent — a 106–102 win over Utah sandwiched between heavy losses (91–131 to San Antonio, 98–114 to Boston), pointing to volatility on offense and defense. Across the projected starters, Atlanta’s five average an offensive rating of 113.92, defensive rating of 114.26, and 17.74 average points made per starter, reflecting balanced scoring and improving team play. Philadelphia’s five average a higher offensive rating (118.18) but a slightly worse defensive rating (115.80) with 13.68 points made per starter, emphasizing reliance on Tyrese Maxey’s scoring punch. That balance versus a high-end scorer matchup shapes the matchup.

Final Prediction

The Hawks’ current form, rising power rating, and balanced starting unit give them the edge in this matchup. Watch whether Atlanta’s defense can limit Tyrese Maxey — containing him will be the key factor deciding the game.

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