NBA 2025-2026: Memphis Grizzlies vs Los Angeles Clippers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Memphis Grizzlies

Home Team
52.4%
VS

Los Angeles Clippers

Away Team
47.6%
2025-2026 Season

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Scotty Pippen Jr.
OR
105.1
DR
117.1
PTS
11.4
VS
Kris Dunn
OR
118.2
DR
116.6
PTS
8.0
SG
Jaylen Wells
OR
110.7
DR
118.6
PTS
12.7
VS
Kobe Sanders
OR
100.2
DR
118.0
PTS
7.0
SF
Ty Jerome
OR
128.4
DR
123.3
PTS
19.0
VS
Derrick Jones Jr.
OR
123.9
DR
118.3
PTS
10.9
PF
GG Jackson II
OR
101.3
DR
96.5
PTS
10.7
VS
Kawhi Leonard
OR
123.4
DR
111.8
PTS
27.9
C
Olivier-Maxence Prosper
OR
107.1
DR
116.8
PTS
7.8
VS
Brook Lopez
OR
95.0
DR
114.9
PTS
7.8
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Memphis is projected to win this one with a 52.4% probability. Expected starting fives — Memphis: Scotty Pippen Jr., Jaylen Wells, Ty Jerome, GG Jackson II, Olivier-Maxence Prosper; Clippers: Kris Dunn, Kobe Sanders, Derrick Jones Jr., Kawhi Leonard, Brook Lopez.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The models expect a combined 231.99 points, pointing to an uptempo, high-scoring affair rather than a defensive slog. The projected spread (Home - Away = -0.07) is essentially a pick’em with a tiny edge to the away side by 0.07 points. Note: two separate models are shown here — one produces the win probability (favoring Memphis) and a different model produces the point-spread; they can point in slightly different directions and both are provided for transparency.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 232.0 Most likely outcome: 232 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Memphis Grizzlies - Los Angeles Clippers) -0.1 Most likely outcome: -1 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Over the last five games the Clippers show clearer upward momentum while the Grizzlies have a modest net rise but have eased off a recent peak.

Memphis Grizzlies

1397.5 +10.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-04 Portland Trail Blazers 1397.5 -8.2
2026-03-03 Minnesota Timberwolves 1405.7 -4.7
2026-03-01 Indiana Pacers 1410.4 +10.6
2026-02-27 Dallas Mavericks 1399.8 +12.8
2026-02-25 Golden State Warriors 1387.0 —

Los Angeles Clippers

1533.1 +17.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-06 San Antonio Spurs 1533.1 -5.7
2026-03-04 Indiana Pacers 1538.8 +5.0
2026-03-02 Golden State Warriors 1533.8 +11.2
2026-03-01 New Orleans Pelicans 1522.6 +7.2
2026-02-26 Minnesota Timberwolves 1515.4 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Memphis Grizzlies

2-3 in last 5
L L W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Portland Trail Blazers 114 122 -8
Minnesota Timberwolves 110 117 -7
Indiana Pacers 125 106 +19
Dallas Mavericks 124 105 +19
Golden State Warriors 112 133 -21

Los Angeles Clippers

3-2 in last 5
L W W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
San Antonio Spurs 112 116 -4
Indiana Pacers 130 107 +23
Golden State Warriors 114 101 +13
New Orleans Pelicans 137 117 +20
Minnesota Timberwolves 88 94 -6

Game Analysis

Memphis arrives 1-2 over the last three after a convincing 125-106 win over Indiana but back-to-back losses to Portland (114-122) and Minnesota (110-117). The Grizzlies’ projected starters average an offensive rating of 110.52, defensive rating of 114.46 and 12.32 points made per starter — a balanced unit with Ty Jerome (19.0 average) as the clear scoring engine. The Clippers are 2-1 in their last three with wins over Indiana (130-107) and Golden State (114-101) before a 112-116 loss to San Antonio. Their projected starters average an offensive rating of 112.14, defensive rating of 115.92 and the same 12.32 points made per starter overall, led by Kawhi Leonard’s 27.9 scoring average. Those similar scoring averages suggest matchup and bench play could swing the game.

Final Prediction

Memphis’s slight defensive edge among the projected starters and a modest positive trend give them the narrow projected edge. Key factor to watch: Kawhi Leonard’s scoring load versus Memphis’s ability to limit him — that matchup will likely decide the final outcome.

Get Daily NBA Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven NBA predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel