NBA 2025-2026: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Golden State Warriors: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Oklahoma City Thunder

Home Team
73.0%
VS

Golden State Warriors

Away Team
27.0%
2025-2026 Season

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OR
135.7
DR
108.2
PTS
31.7
VS
De'Anthony Melton
OR
98.6
DR
112.2
PTS
12.7
SG
Cason Wallace
OR
110.7
DR
106.4
PTS
8.9
VS
Brandin Podziemski
OR
114.4
DR
114.4
PTS
12.6
SF
Isaiah Joe
OR
121.2
DR
111.5
PTS
10.9
VS
Draymond Green
OR
100.6
DR
113.6
PTS
8.4
PF
Luguentz Dort
OR
105.5
DR
110.9
PTS
8.7
VS
Gui Santos
OR
116.2
DR
112.9
PTS
6.9
C
Chet Holmgren
OR
123.5
DR
103.8
PTS
17.3
VS
Al Horford
OR
114.7
DR
111.3
PTS
8.4
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Oklahoma City Thunder are the pick to win (73.0% probability). Expected starting fives — Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren. Golden State Warriors: De'Anthony Melton, Brandin Podziemski, Draymond Green, Gui Santos, Al Horford.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected total is 217.58 points, suggesting a moderately high-scoring game with an uptempo outline rather than a slog. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 13.62, a large cushion favoring the home side; coupled with the pick for Oklahoma City, the numbers imply a clear advantage to the Thunder.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 217.6 Most likely outcome: 217 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Oklahoma City Thunder - Golden State Warriors) 13.6 Most likely outcome: 14 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Oklahoma City’s power rating has climbed from 1636.2 to 1661.4 (+25.2), while Golden State’s has generally dipped from 1506.6 to 1503.3 (-3.3).

Oklahoma City Thunder

1661.4 +25.2 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-04 New York Knicks 1661.4 +9.5
2026-03-03 Chicago Bulls 1651.9 +4.1
2026-03-01 Dallas Mavericks 1647.8 +4.3
2026-02-27 Denver Nuggets 1643.5 +7.3
2026-02-25 Detroit Pistons 1636.2 —

Golden State Warriors

1503.3 -3.3 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-05 Houston Rockets 1503.3 +12.3
2026-03-02 Los Angeles Clippers 1491.0 -11.1
2026-02-28 Los Angeles Lakers 1502.1 -13.2
2026-02-25 Memphis Grizzlies 1515.3 +8.7
2026-02-24 New Orleans Pelicans 1506.6 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Oklahoma City Thunder

4-1 in last 5
W W W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
New York Knicks 103 100 +3
Chicago Bulls 116 108 +8
Dallas Mavericks 100 87 +13
Denver Nuggets 127 121 +6
Detroit Pistons 116 124 -8

Golden State Warriors

2-3 in last 5
W L L W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Houston Rockets 115 113 +2
Los Angeles Clippers 101 114 -13
Los Angeles Lakers 101 129 -28
Memphis Grizzlies 133 112 +21
New Orleans Pelicans 109 113 -4

Game Analysis

OKC enters on a three-game winning streak (wins 103-100 vs Knicks, 116-108 vs Bulls, 100-87 vs Mavericks), showing steady offense and the ability to close tight games while holding Dallas to 87 points. Golden State is 1-2 over its last three (115-113 win vs Rockets, 101-114 loss to Clippers, 101-129 loss to Lakers), with defensive lapses evident in the two losses and a narrow escape in their lone win. Looking at the projected lineups, Oklahoma City’s starters average an offensive rating of 119.32 and a defensive rating of 108.16, combining for 77.5 points (15.5 per starter). Golden State’s five average an offensive rating of 108.90 and a defensive rating of 112.88, combining for 49.0 points (9.8 per starter). That gap — especially on offense and team scoring — helps explain the sizable edge for OKC.

Final Prediction

The Thunder’s momentum, higher offensive ceiling, and stronger two-way numbers give them the edge in this matchup. Watch how Golden State defends Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and whether Oklahoma City’s interior duo can exploit the Warriors’ defensive inconsistencies.

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