NBA 2025-2026: Los Angeles Lakers vs New York Knicks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Los Angeles Lakers
Home Team
68.5%
VS
New York Knicks
Away Team
31.5%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Luka Dončić
OR
120.1
DR
113.9
PTS
32.5
VS
Jalen Brunson
OR
121.5
DR
116.5
PTS
26.2
SG
Marcus Smart
OR
106.2
DR
117.1
PTS
9.5
VS
Josh Hart
OR
119.3
DR
109.8
PTS
11.9
SF
Austin Reaves
OR
121.6
DR
117.9
PTS
23.5
VS
Mikal Bridges
OR
127.7
DR
112.8
PTS
15.5
PF
LeBron James
OR
117.4
DR
116.9
PTS
21.4
VS
OG Anunoby
OR
114.4
DR
111.4
PTS
16.4
C
Deandre Ayton
OR
123.2
DR
115.2
PTS
12.6
VS
Karl-Anthony Towns
OR
120.6
DR
109.1
PTS
19.7
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
I project the Los Angeles Lakers to win (68.5% probability).
Expected starting five — Los Angeles Lakers: Luka Dončić, Marcus Smart, Austin Reaves, LeBron James, Deandre Ayton. New York Knicks: Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a high-scoring affair with a combined total of 236.87 points, suggesting an up-tempo game or efficient shooting from both sides. The expected spread (Home - Away) is -0.54, a tiny edge for the away team by 0.54 points. Note these come from two separate predictive approaches: one produces the win probability (favoring the Lakers) and another estimates point spread (favoring the away side); both are shown for transparency even though they point slightly different ways.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
236.9
Most likely outcome: 237 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Los Angeles Lakers - New York Knicks)
-0.5
Most likely outcome: -1 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
L.A.’s power rating has ticked up modestly (+5.8 over five games) while New York’s has surged more sharply (+26.5), giving the Knicks stronger recent momentum.
Los Angeles Lakers
1538.5
+5.8 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | Indiana Pacers | 1538.5 | +4.5 |
| 2026-03-05 | Denver Nuggets | 1534.0 | -9.7 |
| 2026-03-03 | New Orleans Pelicans | 1543.7 | +6.1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Sacramento Kings | 1537.6 | +4.9 |
| 2026-02-28 | Golden State Warriors | 1532.7 | — |
New York Knicks
1618.1
+26.5 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | Denver Nuggets | 1618.1 | +12.1 |
| 2026-03-04 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1606.0 | -9.5 |
| 2026-03-03 | Toronto Raptors | 1615.5 | +9.8 |
| 2026-03-01 | San Antonio Spurs | 1605.7 | +14.1 |
| 2026-02-27 | Milwaukee Bucks | 1591.6 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Los Angeles Lakers
4-1 in last 5
W
L
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana Pacers | 128 | 117 | +11 | |
| Denver Nuggets | 113 | 120 | -7 | |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 110 | 101 | +9 | |
| Sacramento Kings | 128 | 104 | +24 | |
| Golden State Warriors | 129 | 101 | +28 |
New York Knicks
4-1 in last 5
W
L
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Nuggets | 142 | 103 | +39 | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 100 | 103 | -3 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 111 | 95 | +16 | |
| San Antonio Spurs | 114 | 89 | +25 | |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 127 | 98 | +29 |
Game Analysis
Recent form is similar: the Lakers are 2-1 (wins over Indiana 128-117 and New Orleans 110-101, loss at Denver 113-120) while the Knicks are also 2-1 (blowout vs Denver 142-103, narrow loss to OKC 100-103, win at Toronto 111-95). The Knicks’ 142-point outburst shows their ceiling, while the Lakers have balanced scoring across big wins.
Looking at the projected starting fives, the Lakers’ average offensive rating is 117.7, defensive rating 116.2, and average points made per starter 19.9. The Knicks’ starters average offensive rating 120.7, defensive rating 111.9, and 17.9 points made per starter. That frames a matchup of New York’s slightly better offense and cleaner team defense against Los Angeles’ higher scoring concentration (notably Luka’s 32.5 and Austin Reaves’ 23.5).
Final Prediction
The Lakers get the edge in the win-probability model thanks to concentrated scoring from Luka and Reaves plus interior production from Ayton. Key factor to watch: how well the Lakers contain Mikal Bridges (OR 127.7) and Jalen Brunson while limiting Towns inside — that two-way balance will decide the margin.
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