NBA 2025-2026: New Orleans Pelicans vs Washington Wizards: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
New Orleans Pelicans
Home Team
68.7%
VS
Washington Wizards
Away Team
31.3%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Dejounte Murray
OR
108.6
DR
113.8
PTS
15.4
VS
Trae Young
OR
110.0
DR
125.0
PTS
12.0
SG
Herbert Jones
OR
102.8
DR
117.5
PTS
8.9
VS
Tre Johnson
OR
105.8
DR
123.3
PTS
12.4
SF
Saddiq Bey
OR
121.9
DR
121.2
PTS
17.4
VS
Bilal Coulibaly
OR
108.3
DR
119.0
PTS
10.5
PF
Trey Murphy III
OR
121.7
DR
119.8
PTS
21.9
VS
Will Riley
OR
105.4
DR
123.8
PTS
8.0
C
Zion Williamson
OR
123.5
DR
118.5
PTS
21.5
VS
Alex Sarr
OR
111.4
DR
116.6
PTS
17.2
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
New Orleans Pelicans are projected to win this one with a 68.7% probability.
Expected starting fives — New Orleans Pelicans: Dejounte Murray, Herbert Jones, Saddiq Bey, Trey Murphy III, Zion Williamson; Washington Wizards: Trae Young, Tre Johnson, Bilal Coulibaly, Will Riley, Alex Sarr
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 242.06 points, signaling a fairly high-scoring affair and a quicker-than-average pace. The expected spread (home − away) is 8.97, which gives the home team roughly a nine-point edge heading into the matchup.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
242.1
Most likely outcome: 242 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (New Orleans Pelicans - Washington Wizards)
9.0
Most likely outcome: 9 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Both teams’ ratings are sliding, with New Orleans down modestly and Washington dropping more sharply over the last five games.
New Orleans Pelicans
1410.5
-11.0 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | Phoenix Suns | 1410.5 | -6.0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Sacramento Kings | 1416.5 | +8.4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1408.1 | -6.1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Los Angeles Clippers | 1414.2 | -7.3 |
| 2026-02-28 | Utah Jazz | 1421.5 | — |
Washington Wizards
1335.6
-27.5 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-05 | Utah Jazz | 1335.6 | -11.5 |
| 2026-03-03 | Orlando Magic | 1347.1 | -5.7 |
| 2026-03-02 | Houston Rockets | 1352.8 | -4.6 |
| 2026-02-28 | Toronto Raptors | 1357.4 | -5.7 |
| 2026-02-26 | Atlanta Hawks | 1363.1 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
New Orleans Pelicans
2-3 in last 5
L
W
L
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix Suns | 116 | 118 | -2 | |
| Sacramento Kings | 133 | 123 | +10 | |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 101 | 110 | -9 | |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 117 | 137 | -20 | |
| Utah Jazz | 115 | 105 | +10 |
Washington Wizards
0-5 in last 5
L
L
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah Jazz | 112 | 122 | -10 | |
| Orlando Magic | 109 | 126 | -17 | |
| Houston Rockets | 118 | 123 | -5 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 125 | 134 | -9 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 96 | 126 | -30 |
Game Analysis
New Orleans is 1-2 over its last three games: a tight 116-118 loss to Phoenix, a 133-123 win over Sacramento, and a 101-110 loss to the Lakers — showing an offense that can erupt (133 points) but also some inconsistency. Washington arrives on a three-game skid, losing 112-122, 109-126 and 118-123, a pattern that highlights struggles on both ends and a club that’s been unable to stop opponents consistently.
Looking at the starters, the Pelicans’ five average an offensive rating of 115.7, a defensive rating of 118.2, and average points made of 17.0 — a group with clear scoring upside (Trey Murphy III 21.9, Zion Williamson 21.5). The Wizards’ starting five averages an offensive rating of 108.2, a defensive rating of 121.5, and average points made of 12.0, indicating less offensive firepower and a higher defensive burden. That gap in efficiency and scoring from the starters helps explain the projected margin.
Final Prediction
New Orleans holds the edge because its starters combine higher offensive efficiency and scoring, while Washington is on a steeper slide. Watch whether the Pelicans can sustain that scoring punch and force Washington’s starters into uncomfortable defensive matchups — that will likely decide the outcome.
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