NBA 2025-2026: Phoenix Suns vs Charlotte Hornets: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Phoenix Suns
Home Team
36.4%
VS
Charlotte Hornets
Away Team
63.6%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Collin Gillespie
OR
121.1
DR
115.0
PTS
13.4
VS
LaMelo Ball
OR
114.0
DR
114.3
PTS
19.2
SG
Devin Booker
OR
117.5
DR
116.6
PTS
24.8
VS
Brandon Miller
OR
112.1
DR
112.8
PTS
20.9
SF
Jalen Green
OR
94.4
DR
111.9
PTS
14.1
VS
Kon Knueppel
OR
125.5
DR
116.5
PTS
19.3
PF
Royce O'Neale
OR
113.9
DR
114.2
PTS
9.9
VS
Miles Bridges
OR
119.3
DR
115.7
PTS
17.5
C
Oso Ighodaro
OR
115.2
DR
112.0
PTS
6.0
VS
Moussa Diabaté
OR
138.9
DR
111.7
PTS
8.4
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Charlotte Hornets are picked to win (63.6% probability).
Expected starting five — Phoenix Suns: Collin Gillespie, Devin Booker, Jalen Green, Royce O'Neale, Oso Ighodaro; Charlotte Hornets: LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, Kon Knueppel, Miles Bridges, Moussa Diabaté.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model projects 227.58 combined points, pointing to a fairly high-scoring affair and an uptempo game flow. The expected spread is Home - Away = -5.47, meaning Charlotte is favored by roughly 5.5 points on the road and carries the advantage against Phoenix.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
227.6
Most likely outcome: 227 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Phoenix Suns - Charlotte Hornets)
-5.5
Most likely outcome: -6 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Both teams are on the rise lately, with Charlotte’s power rating climbing more steeply (+17.3 over five games) versus Phoenix’s more modest gain (+7.1).
Phoenix Suns
1535.6
+7.1 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | New Orleans Pelicans | 1535.6 | +6.1 |
| 2026-03-05 | Chicago Bulls | 1529.5 | -13.0 |
| 2026-03-03 | Sacramento Kings | 1542.5 | +4.5 |
| 2026-02-26 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1538.0 | +9.5 |
| 2026-02-24 | Boston Celtics | 1528.5 | — |
Charlotte Hornets
1568.3
+17.3 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | Miami Heat | 1568.3 | -12.2 |
| 2026-03-04 | Boston Celtics | 1580.5 | +15.0 |
| 2026-03-03 | Dallas Mavericks | 1565.5 | +5.8 |
| 2026-02-28 | Portland Trail Blazers | 1559.7 | +8.7 |
| 2026-02-26 | Indiana Pacers | 1551.0 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Phoenix Suns
3-2 in last 5
W
L
W
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Pelicans | 118 | 116 | +2 | |
| Chicago Bulls | 103 | 105 | -2 | |
| Sacramento Kings | 114 | 103 | +11 | |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 113 | 110 | +3 | |
| Boston Celtics | 81 | 97 | -16 |
Charlotte Hornets
4-1 in last 5
L
W
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Heat | 120 | 128 | -8 | |
| Boston Celtics | 118 | 89 | +29 | |
| Dallas Mavericks | 117 | 90 | +27 | |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 109 | 93 | +16 | |
| Indiana Pacers | 133 | 109 | +24 |
Game Analysis
Phoenix arrives 2-1 in its last three with tight results: wins over New Orleans (118-116) and Sacramento (114-103) and a two-point loss to Chicago (103-105). Their projected starters combine for an average offensive rating of 112.42, defensive rating of 113.94, and average 13.64 points per starter, signaling solid balance but middling offensive firepower outside Devin Booker’s 24.8 scoring average.
Charlotte is also 2-1, bouncing back from an eight-point loss to Miami with dominant wins over Boston (118-89) and Dallas (117-90). Their projected starting five posts an average offensive rating of 121.96, defensive rating of 114.20, and 17.06 points per starter — a noticeably higher offensive ceiling driven by Kon Knueppel and Moussa Diabaté’s elite ratings. That offensive edge and recent momentum help explain the Hornets’ road favoritism.
Final Prediction
Charlotte’s stronger recent trend and superior starting-five offensive profile give them the edge in this matchup. Key factor to watch: whether Phoenix can slow Charlotte’s offense enough to neutralize that higher offensive rating.
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