NBA 2025-2026: Portland Trail Blazers vs Indiana Pacers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Portland Trail Blazers

Home Team
62.3%
VS

Indiana Pacers

Away Team
37.7%
2025-2026 Season

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Jrue Holiday
OR
116.5
DR
118.1
PTS
16.7
VS
Andrew Nembhard
OR
111.6
DR
122.3
PTS
17.2
SG
Deni Avdija
OR
115.9
DR
117.3
PTS
24.4
VS
Aaron Nesmith
OR
103.1
DR
119.5
PTS
12.7
SF
Jerami Grant
OR
117.2
DR
120.0
PTS
18.8
VS
Jarace Walker
OR
100.2
DR
117.7
PTS
11.1
PF
Toumani Camara
OR
111.5
DR
118.1
PTS
13.0
VS
Pascal Siakam
OR
111.7
DR
117.7
PTS
24.0
C
Donovan Clingan
OR
130.6
DR
112.8
PTS
11.9
VS
Jay Huff
OR
110.7
DR
114.9
PTS
9.2
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Portland Trail Blazers are projected to win with a 62.3% probability. Expected starting fives — Portland: Jrue Holiday, Deni Avdija, Jerami Grant, Toumani Camara, Donovan Clingan; Indiana: Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Jarace Walker, Pascal Siakam, Jay Huff.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 239.96 points, suggesting a potentially fast, high-scoring game or at least poor defensive showings on one side. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 8.64, favoring the home team by about 8.6 points and implying a comfortable margin that aligns with Portland being the projected winner.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 240.0 Most likely outcome: 240 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Portland Trail Blazers - Indiana Pacers) 8.6 Most likely outcome: 8 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams' ratings are on the decline over recent games, with Indiana dropping more sharply than Portland.

Portland Trail Blazers

1479.6 -19.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-06 Houston Rockets 1479.6 -7.4
2026-03-04 Memphis Grizzlies 1487.0 +8.2
2026-03-01 Atlanta Hawks 1478.8 -11.8
2026-02-28 Charlotte Hornets 1490.6 -8.7
2026-02-26 Chicago Bulls 1499.3 —

Indiana Pacers

1328.2 -26.4 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-06 Los Angeles Lakers 1328.2 -4.4
2026-03-04 Los Angeles Clippers 1332.6 -5.1
2026-03-01 Memphis Grizzlies 1337.7 -10.6
2026-02-26 Charlotte Hornets 1348.3 -6.3
2026-02-24 Philadelphia 76ers 1354.6 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Portland Trail Blazers

2-3 in last 5
L W L L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Houston Rockets 99 106 -7
Memphis Grizzlies 122 114 +8
Atlanta Hawks 101 135 -34
Charlotte Hornets 93 109 -16
Chicago Bulls 121 112 +9

Indiana Pacers

0-5 in last 5
L L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Los Angeles Lakers 117 128 -11
Los Angeles Clippers 107 130 -23
Memphis Grizzlies 106 125 -19
Charlotte Hornets 109 133 -24
Philadelphia 76ers 114 135 -21

Game Analysis

Portland is 1-2 in its last three, beating Memphis 122-114 but losing 99-106 to Houston and suffering a 101-135 defeat to Atlanta; they’ve shown scoring upside but defensive inconsistency. Indiana is 0-3 over the same stretch, losing 117-128 to the Lakers, 107-130 to the Clippers, and 106-125 to Memphis, a clear pattern of defensive struggles and trouble containing opposing offenses. Looking at the starters, Portland’s five average an offensive rating of 118.34, defensive rating of 117.26, and average points made of 16.96, while Indiana’s five average an offensive rating of 107.46, defensive rating of 118.42, and average points made of 14.84. Portland’s superior offensive profile and slightly better defensive rating, combined with higher scoring from its starters, should tilt the matchup in their favor.

Final Prediction

Portland’s edge comes from a much stronger starting-unit offense (118.34 vs 107.46) and more reliable scoring, while Indiana’s recent slide and leaky defense are concerning. Key factor to watch: how Portland’s frontcourt (including Donovan Clingan) handles Pascal Siakam and whether Indiana can slow Portland’s offense.

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