NBA 2025-2026: Sacramento Kings vs Chicago Bulls: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Sacramento Kings
Home Team
41.4%
VS
Chicago Bulls
Away Team
58.6%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Russell Westbrook
OR
101.2
DR
120.5
PTS
15.3
VS
Josh Giddey
OR
111.0
DR
116.1
PTS
17.7
SG
Nique Clifford
OR
89.6
DR
121.9
PTS
7.3
VS
Tre Jones
OR
129.4
DR
117.0
PTS
12.3
SF
DeMar DeRozan
OR
122.5
DR
123.4
PTS
18.2
VS
Isaac Okoro
OR
113.0
DR
120.4
PTS
9.0
PF
Precious Achiuwa
OR
113.9
DR
118.8
PTS
8.6
VS
Matas Buzelis
OR
109.0
DR
116.6
PTS
15.3
C
Maxime Raynaud
OR
113.4
DR
120.8
PTS
10.6
VS
Jalen Smith
OR
120.1
DR
115.2
PTS
10.3
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Chicago Bulls are the pick to win (58.6% probability).
Expected starting five — Sacramento Kings: Russell Westbrook, Nique Clifford, DeMar DeRozan, Precious Achiuwa, Maxime Raynaud; Chicago Bulls: Josh Giddey, Tre Jones, Isaac Okoro, Matas Buzelis, Jalen Smith.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model projects a combined 235.74 points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring game and a decent pace on both ends. The expected spread is -0.9 (Home - Away), meaning the home team holds a hair under a one-point edge — essentially a toss-up with a slight home advantage.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
235.7
Most likely outcome: 235 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Sacramento Kings - Chicago Bulls)
-0.9
Most likely outcome: -1 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
The Bulls show rising momentum (+14.3 over five games) while the Kings have dipped slightly (-4.0 over five games).
Sacramento Kings
1307.7
-4.0 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-05 | New Orleans Pelicans | 1307.7 | -8.3 |
| 2026-03-03 | Phoenix Suns | 1316.0 | -4.6 |
| 2026-03-01 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1320.6 | -4.9 |
| 2026-02-26 | Dallas Mavericks | 1325.5 | +13.8 |
| 2026-02-25 | Houston Rockets | 1311.7 | — |
Chicago Bulls
1410.8
+14.3 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-05 | Phoenix Suns | 1410.8 | +13.0 |
| 2026-03-03 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1397.8 | -4.1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Milwaukee Bucks | 1401.9 | +13.6 |
| 2026-02-26 | Portland Trail Blazers | 1388.3 | -8.2 |
| 2026-02-24 | Charlotte Hornets | 1396.5 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Sacramento Kings
1-4 in last 5
L
L
L
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Pelicans | 123 | 133 | -10 | |
| Phoenix Suns | 103 | 114 | -11 | |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 104 | 128 | -24 | |
| Dallas Mavericks | 130 | 121 | +9 | |
| Houston Rockets | 97 | 128 | -31 |
Chicago Bulls
2-3 in last 5
W
L
W
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix Suns | 105 | 103 | +2 | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 108 | 116 | -8 | |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 120 | 97 | +23 | |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 112 | 121 | -9 | |
| Charlotte Hornets | 99 | 131 | -32 |
Game Analysis
Sacramento arrives on a three-game losing streak, conceding 133, 114 and 128 points in those defeats; their offense has produced 123, 103 and 104 in the same stretch. Chicago is 2-1 over three, with wins over Phoenix (105-103) and Milwaukee (120-97) and a loss to OKC (108-116), showing they can both score in bunches and clamp down in key games.
Looking at the projected starters, Sacramento’s five average an offensive rating of about 108.1, a defensive rating near 121.1 and average 12.0 points made per starter — which points to offensive limitations and defensive struggles. Chicago’s projected five average roughly a 116.5 offensive rating, a 117.1 defensive rating and about 12.9 points per starter, giving them better balance on both ends. That edge in starter efficiency and recent defensive displays helps explain the Bulls’ advantage.
Final Prediction
The Bulls’ upward trend and stronger starter efficiency give them the edge in a close, high-scoring affair. Watch whether Chicago’s defense can exploit Sacramento’s recent habit of allowing big point totals — that will likely decide the game.
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