NBA 2025-2026: San Antonio Spurs vs Houston Rockets: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

San Antonio Spurs

Home Team
64.5%
VS

Houston Rockets

Away Team
35.5%
2025-2026 Season

Starting Five Matchup

PG
De'Aaron Fox
OR
117.4
DR
112.6
PTS
18.8
VS
Amen Thompson
OR
121.9
DR
113.1
PTS
17.6
SG
Stephon Castle
OR
114.3
DR
110.8
PTS
16.2
VS
Jabari Smith Jr.
OR
122.6
DR
113.7
PTS
15.3
SF
Devin Vassell
OR
115.4
DR
113.8
PTS
14.4
VS
Kevin Durant
OR
124.0
DR
114.3
PTS
26.1
PF
Julian Champagnie
OR
118.9
DR
111.4
PTS
11.4
VS
Tari Eason
OR
114.6
DR
111.0
PTS
11.2
C
Victor Wembanyama
OR
117.7
DR
99.6
PTS
23.8
VS
Alperen Şengün
OR
114.2
DR
110.7
PTS
20.5
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

I favor the San Antonio Spurs to win (64.5% probability). Expected starters — San Antonio Spurs: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama. Houston Rockets: Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Kevin Durant, Tari Eason, Alperen Şengün.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model projects a combined total of 225.29 points, pointing to a moderately high-scoring affair and a fairly up-tempo game. The expected spread is 8.52 in favor of the home team, giving a sizable cushion to whoever is listed as home (San Antonio) and suggesting they should cover comfortably if they control the game.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 225.3 Most likely outcome: 225 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (San Antonio Spurs - Houston Rockets) 8.5 Most likely outcome: 8 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

San Antonio’s power rating is rising (1667.6 → 1678.4) while Houston’s has slipped over the last five games (1585.4 → 1572.7).

San Antonio Spurs

1678.4 +10.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-06 Los Angeles Clippers 1678.4 +5.6
2026-03-05 Detroit Pistons 1672.8 +10.4
2026-03-03 Philadelphia 76ers 1662.4 +8.9
2026-03-01 New York Knicks 1653.5 -14.1
2026-02-26 Brooklyn Nets 1667.6 —

Houston Rockets

1572.7 -12.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-06 Portland Trail Blazers 1572.7 +7.4
2026-03-05 Golden State Warriors 1565.3 -12.3
2026-03-02 Washington Wizards 1577.6 +4.6
2026-02-28 Miami Heat 1573.0 -12.4
2026-02-26 Orlando Magic 1585.4 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

San Antonio Spurs

4-1 in last 5
W W W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Los Angeles Clippers 116 112 +4
Detroit Pistons 121 106 +15
Philadelphia 76ers 131 91 +40
New York Knicks 89 114 -25
Brooklyn Nets 126 110 +16

Houston Rockets

3-2 in last 5
W L W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Portland Trail Blazers 106 99 +7
Golden State Warriors 113 115 -2
Washington Wizards 123 118 +5
Miami Heat 105 115 -10
Orlando Magic 113 108 +5

Game Analysis

San Antonio arrives on a three-game winning streak — recent wins: 116-112 vs Clippers, 121-106 vs Pistons, and a dominant 131-91 vs 76ers — showing both scoring punch and defensive clamp-downs. Houston is 2-1 in the same span with wins over Portland (106-99) and Washington (123-118) but a close loss to Golden State (113-115), indicating inconsistency. Looking at the projected starters, Houston’s unit has the edge on paper offensively: average offensive rating 119.46 and average points made 18.14 per starter, compared with San Antonio’s offensive rating 116.74 and 16.92 points per starter. Defensively San Antonio holds the advantage (average defensive rating 109.64 vs Houston’s 112.56), largely thanks to Victor Wembanyama’s 99.6 defensive rating; that defensive gap is the deciding factor.

Final Prediction

San Antonio’s upward momentum and clear defensive advantage give them the edge in this matchup. Watch whether San Antonio can slow down Houston’s high-rated offensive starters — that will determine if the spread materializes.

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