NBA 2025-2026: Toronto Raptors vs Dallas Mavericks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Toronto Raptors

Home Team
82.5%
VS

Dallas Mavericks

Away Team
17.5%
2025-2026 Season

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Immanuel Quickley
OR
121.3
DR
115.0
PTS
17.4
VS
Max Christie
OR
114.7
DR
117.9
PTS
13.0
SG
Brandon Ingram
OR
109.9
DR
114.3
PTS
21.9
VS
Cooper Flagg
OR
107.9
DR
113.7
PTS
20.3
SF
RJ Barrett
OR
114.6
DR
114.1
PTS
18.3
VS
Khris Middleton
OR
103.5
DR
120.9
PTS
12.4
PF
Scottie Barnes
OR
114.4
DR
109.8
PTS
18.9
VS
P.J. Washington
OR
101.3
DR
112.6
PTS
14.1
C
Jakob Poeltl
OR
125.8
DR
109.5
PTS
9.7
VS
Daniel Gafford
OR
116.6
DR
110.9
PTS
8.3
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Toronto Raptors are predicted to win this game with an 82.5% probability. Expected starting fives — Toronto: Immanuel Quickley, Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl; Dallas: Max Christie, Cooper Flagg, Khris Middleton, P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 223.67 points, suggesting a moderately high-scoring game with a fair amount of pace and offensive opportunity. The spread (Home - Away) is 11.13 in favor of the home team, giving a double-digit edge to whichever team is at home — if that’s Toronto, it further reinforces their heavy favorite status.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 223.7 Most likely outcome: 223 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Toronto Raptors - Dallas Mavericks) 11.1 Most likely outcome: 11 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams are on a downward trend over the last five games, with Toronto falling modestly and Dallas falling slightly more.

Toronto Raptors

1524.8 -18.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-05 Minnesota Timberwolves 1524.8 -7.9
2026-03-03 New York Knicks 1532.7 -9.8
2026-02-28 Washington Wizards 1542.5 +5.7
2026-02-25 San Antonio Spurs 1536.8 -6.9
2026-02-24 Oklahoma City Thunder 1543.7 —

Dallas Mavericks

1379.2 -19.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-06 Boston Celtics 1379.2 -3.8
2026-03-05 Orlando Magic 1383.0 -5.6
2026-03-03 Charlotte Hornets 1388.6 -5.8
2026-03-01 Oklahoma City Thunder 1394.4 -4.3
2026-02-27 Memphis Grizzlies 1398.7 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Toronto Raptors

1-4 in last 5
L L W L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Minnesota Timberwolves 107 115 -8
New York Knicks 95 111 -16
Washington Wizards 134 125 +9
San Antonio Spurs 107 110 -3
Oklahoma City Thunder 107 116 -9

Dallas Mavericks

0-5 in last 5
L L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Boston Celtics 100 120 -20
Orlando Magic 114 115 -1
Charlotte Hornets 90 117 -27
Oklahoma City Thunder 87 100 -13
Memphis Grizzlies 105 124 -19

Game Analysis

Toronto comes in 1-2 over the last three games with a big 134-125 win over Washington surrounded by losses to Minnesota (107-115) and New York (95-111), showing they can score in bunches but have had recent defensive lapses. Dallas is on a three-game skid — losses to Boston (100-120), Orlando (114-115) and Charlotte (90-117) — struggling to find consistent offense and give up large totals in two of those games. Looking at the expected starters, Toronto’s five average an offensive rating of 117.20, defensive rating of 112.54, and average points made of 17.24 per starter. Dallas’s projected five average an offensive rating of 108.80, defensive rating of 115.20, and 13.62 points made per starter. Those numbers favor Toronto both offensively and defensively, with Jakob Poeltl’s 125.8 offensive rating and Daniel Gafford’s 116.6 as a matchup to monitor inside.

Final Prediction

Toronto’s combination of higher offensive efficiency, better team defensive numbers among the projected starters, and more consistent scoring gives them the clear edge. Key thing to watch: the interior matchup between Poeltl and Gafford — control of the paint will likely decide the margin.

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