NBA 2025-2026: Cleveland Cavaliers vs Philadelphia 76ers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Cleveland Cavaliers

Home Team
89.6%
VS

Philadelphia 76ers

Away Team
10.4%
2025-2026 Season

Starting Five Matchup

PG
James Harden
OR
123.7
DR
116.4
PTS
19.1
VS
Cameron Payne
OR
95.8
DR
114.4
PTS
3.6
SG
Donovan Mitchell
OR
120.7
DR
114.7
PTS
28.6
VS
Quentin Grimes
OR
114.9
DR
117.6
PTS
12.7
SF
Sam Merrill
OR
126.8
DR
118.6
PTS
12.9
VS
Dominick Barlow
OR
125.1
DR
115.9
PTS
8.1
PF
Dean Wade
OR
129.7
DR
113.9
PTS
5.8
VS
Kelly Oubre Jr.
OR
109.5
DR
116.8
PTS
14.5
C
Evan Mobley
OR
117.0
DR
110.9
PTS
17.8
VS
Adem Bona
OR
119.2
DR
114.3
PTS
4.6
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Cleveland Cavaliers are the pick to win with an 89.6% probability. Expected starting fives: Cleveland — James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Sam Merrill, Dean Wade, Evan Mobley; Philadelphia — Cameron Payne, Quentin Grimes, Dominick Barlow, Kelly Oubre Jr., Adem Bona.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected combined total is 223.48 points, signaling a moderate-to-high scoring game and a steady offensive pace rather than a grind-it-out defensive battle. The expected spread is 14.14 in favor of the home team, giving Cleveland a large advantage and suggesting a comfortable win if they execute.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 223.5 Most likely outcome: 223 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Cleveland Cavaliers - Philadelphia 76ers) 14.1 Most likely outcome: 14 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Cleveland’s rating has been roughly steady with a small dip over five games, while Philadelphia’s rating has fallen noticeably in that span.

Cleveland Cavaliers

1596.0 -3.1 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-08 Boston Celtics 1596.0 -11.2
2026-03-03 Detroit Pistons 1607.2 +11.7
2026-03-01 Brooklyn Nets 1595.5 +3.7
2026-02-27 Detroit Pistons 1591.8 -7.3
2026-02-25 Milwaukee Bucks 1599.1 —

Philadelphia 76ers

1504.4 -21.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-07 Atlanta Hawks 1504.4 -9.9
2026-03-04 Utah Jazz 1514.3 +4.7
2026-03-03 San Antonio Spurs 1509.6 -8.9
2026-03-01 Boston Celtics 1518.5 -7.8
2026-02-26 Miami Heat 1526.3 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Cleveland Cavaliers

2-3 in last 5
L W W L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Boston Celtics 98 109 -11
Detroit Pistons 113 109 +4
Brooklyn Nets 106 102 +4
Detroit Pistons 119 122 -3
Milwaukee Bucks 116 118 -2

Philadelphia 76ers

2-3 in last 5
L W L L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Atlanta Hawks 116 125 -9
Utah Jazz 106 102 +4
San Antonio Spurs 91 131 -40
Boston Celtics 98 114 -16
Miami Heat 124 117 +7

Game Analysis

Cleveland enters 2-1 over the last three games with wins over Detroit (113-109) and Brooklyn (106-102) and a loss at Boston (98-109). They’ve shown the ability to close out close games but scored under 100 against Boston. Philadelphia is 1-2, with a solid road win at Utah (106-102) sandwiched between heavy losses to Atlanta (116-125) and San Antonio (91-131), flagging inconsistency on both ends. The Cavaliers’ projected starters average an offensive rating of 123.58 and a defensive rating of 114.9, with an average of 16.84 points made per starter; Donovan Mitchell leads at 28.6 points. The 76ers’ starters average a 112.9 offensive rating and a 115.8 defensive rating, with just 8.7 points made per starter. That gap in offensive firepower and scoring distribution is the critical edge for Cleveland.

Final Prediction

Cleveland’s superior starting-five offense and more stable form give them the clear edge in this matchup. Watch how Donovan Mitchell and James Harden are defended early — stopping their scoring and playmaking will be Philadelphia’s best chance to keep this close.

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