NBA 2025-2026: Los Angeles Clippers vs New York Knicks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Los Angeles Clippers
Home Team
42.6%
VS
New York Knicks
Away Team
57.4%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Darius Garland
OR
108.3
DR
117.0
PTS
15.0
VS
Jalen Brunson
OR
121.0
DR
116.5
PTS
26.2
SG
Kris Dunn
OR
117.0
DR
116.6
PTS
7.8
VS
Josh Hart
OR
118.9
DR
109.7
PTS
11.8
SF
Derrick Jones Jr.
OR
126.1
DR
118.6
PTS
11.1
VS
Mikal Bridges
OR
126.5
DR
112.8
PTS
15.3
PF
Kawhi Leonard
OR
124.1
DR
112.0
PTS
27.9
VS
OG Anunoby
OR
114.2
DR
111.5
PTS
16.4
C
Brook Lopez
OR
95.1
DR
115.1
PTS
7.7
VS
Karl-Anthony Towns
OR
120.5
DR
109.0
PTS
19.8
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
The New York Knicks are projected to win this one with a 57.4% probability. Expected starting fives — Los Angeles Clippers: Darius Garland, Kris Dunn, Derrick Jones Jr., Kawhi Leonard, Brook Lopez; New York Knicks: Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 233.11 points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring affair and a brisk offensive pace from both teams. The expected spread (Home - Away) is -5.9, which favors the away team by about 5.9 points — an advantage that aligns with the Knicks in this projection.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
233.1
Most likely outcome: 233 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Los Angeles Clippers - New York Knicks)
-5.9
Most likely outcome: -6 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
The Clippers show rising momentum over the last five games (+17.2), while the Knicks have been roughly flat with a slight dip (-0.5).
Los Angeles Clippers
1539.8
+17.2 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Memphis Grizzlies | 1539.8 | +6.7 |
| 2026-03-06 | San Antonio Spurs | 1533.1 | -5.7 |
| 2026-03-04 | Indiana Pacers | 1538.8 | +5.0 |
| 2026-03-02 | Golden State Warriors | 1533.8 | +11.2 |
| 2026-03-01 | New Orleans Pelicans | 1522.6 | — |
New York Knicks
1605.2
-0.5 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1605.2 | -12.9 |
| 2026-03-06 | Denver Nuggets | 1618.1 | +12.1 |
| 2026-03-04 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1606.0 | -9.5 |
| 2026-03-03 | Toronto Raptors | 1615.5 | +9.8 |
| 2026-03-01 | San Antonio Spurs | 1605.7 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Los Angeles Clippers
4-1 in last 5
W
L
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis Grizzlies | 123 | 120 | +3 | |
| San Antonio Spurs | 112 | 116 | -4 | |
| Indiana Pacers | 130 | 107 | +23 | |
| Golden State Warriors | 114 | 101 | +13 | |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 137 | 117 | +20 |
New York Knicks
3-2 in last 5
L
W
L
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Lakers | 97 | 110 | -13 | |
| Denver Nuggets | 142 | 103 | +39 | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 100 | 103 | -3 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 111 | 95 | +16 | |
| San Antonio Spurs | 114 | 89 | +25 |
Game Analysis
Over the last three games the Clippers are 2-1 (wins over Memphis 123-120 and Indiana 130-107, loss to San Antonio 112-116), showing punchy scoring but some defensive lapses. The Knicks are 1-2 in their last three (loss to Lakers 97-110, big win over Denver 142-103, narrow loss to OKC 100-103), a mix of extreme offensive output and tighter defeats that points to inconsistency. Recent results suggest the Clippers are rolling offensively while the Knicks flash high ceilings.
Looking at the projected starters, the Clippers’ average offensive rating is 114.12, defensive rating 115.86, and average points made 13.90. The Knicks’ starters average an offensive rating of 120.22, defensive rating 111.90, and average points made 17.90. That gap — better offense and a stronger defense on paper for New York — helps explain the edge in this matchup.
Final Prediction
The Knicks’ higher efficiency on both ends and deeper scoring from the projected starters give them the projected edge. Key factor to watch: how New York defends Kawhi Leonard and whether the Clippers can match the Knicks’ balanced scoring.
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