NBA 2025-2026: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Oklahoma City Thunder
Home Team
49.0%
VS
Denver Nuggets
Away Team
51.0%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OR
135.3
DR
108.1
PTS
31.6
VS
Jamal Murray
OR
124.5
DR
120.1
PTS
25.5
SG
Cason Wallace
OR
110.2
DR
106.3
PTS
8.9
VS
Christian Braun
OR
120.4
DR
118.1
PTS
10.8
SF
Isaiah Joe
OR
121.4
DR
111.5
PTS
11.0
VS
Aaron Gordon
OR
121.5
DR
115.0
PTS
17.0
PF
Luguentz Dort
OR
105.1
DR
110.8
PTS
8.7
VS
Cameron Johnson
OR
118.0
DR
119.1
PTS
11.2
C
Chet Holmgren
OR
123.5
DR
103.8
PTS
17.3
VS
Nikola Jokić
OR
136.4
DR
113.3
PTS
28.8
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
The model gives the Denver Nuggets the edge with a 51.0% probability to win. Expected starting fives — Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren; Denver Nuggets: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson, Nikola Jokić.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The projected combined total is 230.68, pointing to a high-scoring, up-tempo game where both offenses can operate freely. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 3.5, favoring Denver by roughly three-and-a-half points and giving the Nuggets a slim home-court edge. Note that two separate models are used here: one produces the win probability (51.0% for Denver) and a separate model produces the point-spread expectation (3.5); both outputs are shown for transparency.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
230.7
Most likely outcome: 230 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Oklahoma City Thunder - Denver Nuggets)
3.5
Most likely outcome: 3 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Oklahoma City’s power rating has been rising (+22.8 over five games), while Denver’s has dipped (-7.8 over five games), so momentum favors the Thunder.
Oklahoma City Thunder
1666.3
+22.8 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Golden State Warriors | 1666.3 | +4.9 |
| 2026-03-04 | New York Knicks | 1661.4 | +9.5 |
| 2026-03-03 | Chicago Bulls | 1651.9 | +4.1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Dallas Mavericks | 1647.8 | +4.3 |
| 2026-02-27 | Denver Nuggets | 1643.5 | — |
Denver Nuggets
1543.5
-7.8 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | New York Knicks | 1543.5 | -12.1 |
| 2026-03-05 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1555.6 | +9.7 |
| 2026-03-02 | Utah Jazz | 1545.9 | +4.9 |
| 2026-03-01 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1541.0 | -10.3 |
| 2026-02-27 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1551.3 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Oklahoma City Thunder
5-0 in last 5
W
W
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden State Warriors | 104 | 97 | +7 | |
| New York Knicks | 103 | 100 | +3 | |
| Chicago Bulls | 116 | 108 | +8 | |
| Dallas Mavericks | 100 | 87 | +13 | |
| Denver Nuggets | 127 | 121 | +6 |
Denver Nuggets
2-3 in last 5
L
W
W
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Knicks | 103 | 142 | -39 | |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 120 | 113 | +7 | |
| Utah Jazz | 128 | 125 | +3 | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 108 | 117 | -9 | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 121 | 127 | -6 |
Game Analysis
Oklahoma City arrives on a three-game winning streak with wins over Golden State, New York and Chicago, each a fairly tight victory that suggests balanced scoring and steady defense. Denver is 2-1 over its last three but suffered a heavy 103–142 loss to New York, bookended by wins over the Lakers and Jazz, which hints at occasional volatility.
Looking at the projected starting fives, OKC’s group averages an offensive rating of 119.1, defensive rating of 108.1 and 15.5 points made per starter; Denver’s five average a higher offensive rating at 124.16, a weaker defensive rating at 117.12 and 18.66 points made per starter. Denver’s edge on offense — led by Nikola Jokić’s 136.4 offensive rating and 28.8 scoring average — contrasts with Oklahoma City’s stronger team defense numbers.
Final Prediction
Denver’s slight offensive advantage and Jokić’s elite impact give the Nuggets the narrow edge in this matchup. The key factor to watch: how Oklahoma City defends Jokić and whether Shai Gilgeous-Alexander can be contained while keeping OKC’s momentum alive.
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