NBA 2025-2026: Utah Jazz vs Golden State Warriors: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Utah Jazz
Home Team
39.9%
VS
Golden State Warriors
Away Team
60.1%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Keyonte George
OR
116.6
DR
124.8
PTS
24.0
VS
De'Anthony Melton
OR
98.6
DR
112.2
PTS
12.7
SG
Cody Williams
OR
96.9
DR
124.0
PTS
6.1
VS
Pat Spencer
OR
94.9
DR
115.9
PTS
6.4
SF
Ace Bailey
OR
103.1
DR
122.9
PTS
12.4
VS
Brandin Podziemski
OR
114.3
DR
114.3
PTS
12.7
PF
Kyle Filipowski
OR
113.5
DR
118.5
PTS
10.3
VS
Draymond Green
OR
100.9
DR
113.6
PTS
8.6
C
Oscar Tshiebwe
OR
140.3
DR
123.3
PTS
3.6
VS
Gui Santos
OR
116.1
DR
112.8
PTS
7.2
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Golden State Warriors are the pick to win (60.1% probability).
Expected starting five — Utah Jazz: Keyonte George, Cody Williams, Ace Bailey, Kyle Filipowski, Oscar Tshiebwe. Golden State Warriors: De'Anthony Melton, Pat Spencer, Brandin Podziemski, Draymond Green, Gui Santos.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model projects a combined total of 232.37 points, suggesting a moderately high-scoring game and a pace that should produce plenty of possessions. The expected spread (Home - Away) is -0.72, a hair favoring the Warriors on the road — effectively a pick’em with a slight edge to Golden State.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
232.4
Most likely outcome: 232 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Utah Jazz - Golden State Warriors)
-0.7
Most likely outcome: -1 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Both teams show modest downward momentum over the last five games, with the Warriors’ power trend declining more noticeably.
Utah Jazz
1341.6
-5.0 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Milwaukee Bucks | 1341.6 | -6.9 |
| 2026-03-05 | Washington Wizards | 1348.5 | +11.5 |
| 2026-03-04 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1337.0 | -4.6 |
| 2026-03-02 | Denver Nuggets | 1341.6 | -5.0 |
| 2026-02-28 | New Orleans Pelicans | 1346.6 | — |
Golden State Warriors
1498.4
-16.9 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1498.4 | -4.9 |
| 2026-03-05 | Houston Rockets | 1503.3 | +12.3 |
| 2026-03-02 | Los Angeles Clippers | 1491.0 | -11.1 |
| 2026-02-28 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1502.1 | -13.2 |
| 2026-02-25 | Memphis Grizzlies | 1515.3 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Utah Jazz
1-4 in last 5
L
W
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Bucks | 99 | 113 | -14 | |
| Washington Wizards | 122 | 112 | +10 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 102 | 106 | -4 | |
| Denver Nuggets | 125 | 128 | -3 | |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 105 | 115 | -10 |
Golden State Warriors
2-3 in last 5
L
W
L
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 97 | 104 | -7 | |
| Houston Rockets | 115 | 113 | +2 | |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 101 | 114 | -13 | |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 101 | 129 | -28 | |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 133 | 112 | +21 |
Game Analysis
Utah is 1-2 in their last three (loss to Milwaukee 99-113, win over Washington 122-112, loss to Philadelphia 102-106), displaying offensive bursts but defensive inconsistency. Golden State is also 1-2 recently (loss to OKC 97-104, win vs Houston 115-113, loss to LA Clippers 101-114), mixing efficient scoring nights with games where points were hard to come by.
Looking at the expected starters, Utah’s five average an offensive rating of 114.08 and a defensive rating of 122.70, with an average of 11.28 points made per starter — indicating high scoring firepower but defensive fragility. Golden State’s projected starters average an offensive rating of 104.96 and a defensive rating of 113.76, with 9.52 points made per starter — a lower offensive ceiling but a sturdier defensive profile. That contrast—Utah’s scoring punch versus Golden State’s better defensive balance—shapes how the game should play out.
Final Prediction
The Warriors get the nod because their starting group offers noticeably better team defense and the overall power numbers favor Golden State. Key factor to watch: whether Utah’s efficient scoring from their starters can overcome Golden State’s defensive cohesion.
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