NBA 2025-2026: Golden State Warriors vs Chicago Bulls: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Golden State Warriors

Home Team
61.5%
VS

Chicago Bulls

Away Team
38.5%
2025-2026 Season

Starting Five Matchup

PG
De'Anthony Melton
OR
99.3
DR
112.3
PTS
13.0
VS
Josh Giddey
OR
111.1
DR
116.1
PTS
17.6
SG
Brandin Podziemski
OR
114.0
DR
114.4
PTS
12.7
VS
Tre Jones
OR
129.3
DR
117.2
PTS
12.3
SF
Moses Moody
OR
114.3
DR
115.7
PTS
11.9
VS
Isaac Okoro
OR
113.5
DR
120.6
PTS
9.0
PF
Draymond Green
OR
101.6
DR
114.0
PTS
8.5
VS
Matas Buzelis
OR
109.1
DR
116.7
PTS
15.4
C
Al Horford
OR
114.1
DR
111.4
PTS
8.3
VS
Guerschon Yabusele
OR
111.7
DR
116.4
PTS
10.8
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Golden State Warriors are the pick to win this one, with a 61.5% probability. Expected starting five — Golden State: De'Anthony Melton, Brandin Podziemski, Moses Moody, Draymond Green, Al Horford. Chicago: Josh Giddey, Tre Jones, Isaac Okoro, Matas Buzelis, Guerschon Yabusele.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 224.72 points, signaling a fairly high-scoring game and a decent offensive pace from both teams. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 6.38 points in favor of the home side, giving the home team a clear cushion on the glass and scoreboard.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 224.7 Most likely outcome: 224 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Golden State Warriors - Chicago Bulls) 6.4 Most likely outcome: 6 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Golden State’s Elo has been drifting downward over the last five games while Chicago’s has seen a modest uptick.

Golden State Warriors

1485.3 -16.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-09 Utah Jazz 1485.3 -13.1
2026-03-07 Oklahoma City Thunder 1498.4 -4.9
2026-03-05 Houston Rockets 1503.3 +12.3
2026-03-02 Los Angeles Clippers 1491.0 -11.1
2026-02-28 Los Angeles Lakers 1502.1 —

Chicago Bulls

1397.2 +8.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-08 Sacramento Kings 1397.2 -13.6
2026-03-05 Phoenix Suns 1410.8 +13.0
2026-03-03 Oklahoma City Thunder 1397.8 -4.1
2026-03-01 Milwaukee Bucks 1401.9 +13.6
2026-02-26 Portland Trail Blazers 1388.3 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Golden State Warriors

1-4 in last 5
L L W L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Utah Jazz 116 119 -3
Oklahoma City Thunder 97 104 -7
Houston Rockets 115 113 +2
Los Angeles Clippers 101 114 -13
Los Angeles Lakers 101 129 -28

Chicago Bulls

2-3 in last 5
L W L W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Sacramento Kings 110 126 -16
Phoenix Suns 105 103 +2
Oklahoma City Thunder 108 116 -8
Milwaukee Bucks 120 97 +23
Portland Trail Blazers 112 121 -9

Game Analysis

Golden State arrives 1-2 over the last three games, with a narrow 116-119 loss to Utah, a 97-104 loss to Oklahoma City, and a 115-113 win over Houston — games have been close and competitive. Chicago is also 1-2, dropping a heavy 110-126 game to Sacramento, beating Phoenix 105-103, and losing 108-116 to Oklahoma City; the Bulls’ results show some offensive upside but inconsistency on defense. Looking at the projected starting units, Golden State’s five average offensive rating is about 108.66, defensive rating 113.56, and average points made 10.88. Chicago’s starters average roughly 114.94 on offense, 117.38 on defense, and 12.82 points made. That suggests Chicago’s starters can generate more scoring, but Golden State’s unit profile is sturdier on defense — a matchup that favors the Warriors controlling key possessions.

Final Prediction

Golden State’s combination of a tighter defensive profile and overall team rating advantage gives them the edge in a game expected to be high-scoring. Watch how the Warriors handle Chicago’s starting scoring punch and whether Chicago can stop second-chance or transition opportunities — that will decide the outcome.

Get Daily NBA Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven NBA predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel