NBA 2025-2026: Houston Rockets vs Toronto Raptors: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Houston Rockets

Home Team
68.5%
VS

Toronto Raptors

Away Team
31.5%
2025-2026 Season

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Amen Thompson
OR
122.3
DR
113.7
PTS
17.6
VS
Immanuel Quickley
OR
120.8
DR
114.6
PTS
17.3
SG
Jabari Smith Jr.
OR
123.3
DR
114.3
PTS
15.3
VS
Brandon Ingram
OR
109.5
DR
113.9
PTS
21.7
SF
Kevin Durant
OR
124.4
DR
114.8
PTS
26.0
VS
RJ Barrett
OR
114.9
DR
113.5
PTS
18.6
PF
Tari Eason
OR
113.5
DR
111.8
PTS
11.0
VS
Scottie Barnes
OR
114.7
DR
109.6
PTS
18.9
C
Alperen Şengün
OR
113.9
DR
111.4
PTS
20.4
VS
Jakob Poeltl
OR
127.0
DR
108.8
PTS
9.9
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Houston Rockets — Winner (68.5% probability). Expected starting five — Houston Rockets: Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Kevin Durant, Tari Eason, Alperen Şengün. Toronto Raptors: Immanuel Quickley, Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The game’s expected total is 225.16 points, suggesting a reasonably high-scoring affair and an uptempo pace for both teams. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 4.4, which gives the home team — Toronto — a modest 4.4-point edge on the board despite the Rockets being the projected winner.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 225.2 Most likely outcome: 225 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Houston Rockets - Toronto Raptors) 4.4 Most likely outcome: 4 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams show slight downward momentum over the last five games, with Houston dipping more (-7.8) than Toronto (-5.4).

Houston Rockets

1565.2 -7.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-08 San Antonio Spurs 1565.2 -7.5
2026-03-06 Portland Trail Blazers 1572.7 +7.4
2026-03-05 Golden State Warriors 1565.3 -12.3
2026-03-02 Washington Wizards 1577.6 +4.6
2026-02-28 Miami Heat 1573.0 —

Toronto Raptors

1531.4 -5.4 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-08 Dallas Mavericks 1531.4 +6.6
2026-03-05 Minnesota Timberwolves 1524.8 -7.9
2026-03-03 New York Knicks 1532.7 -9.8
2026-02-28 Washington Wizards 1542.5 +5.7
2026-02-25 San Antonio Spurs 1536.8 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Houston Rockets

2-3 in last 5
L W L W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
San Antonio Spurs 120 145 -25
Portland Trail Blazers 106 99 +7
Golden State Warriors 113 115 -2
Washington Wizards 123 118 +5
Miami Heat 105 115 -10

Toronto Raptors

2-3 in last 5
W L L W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Dallas Mavericks 122 92 +30
Minnesota Timberwolves 107 115 -8
New York Knicks 95 111 -16
Washington Wizards 134 125 +9
San Antonio Spurs 107 110 -3

Game Analysis

Houston is 1-2 over the last three: a heavy 120-145 loss to San Antonio, a 106-99 win over Portland, and a tight 113-115 loss to Golden State. That sequence shows scoring upside mixed with defensive lapses — the 145 allowed is a glaring outlier. Toronto is also 1-2: an impressive 122-92 win over Dallas followed by losses to Minnesota (107-115) and New York (95-111), indicating flashes of high-level offense but recent inconsistency. Looking at the projected starters, Houston’s five average offensive rating is 119.48, defensive rating 113.20, and average points made 18.06. Toronto’s projected five average offensive rating is 117.38, defensive rating 112.08, and average points made 17.28. Houston carries a slight offensive edge on paper (119.48 vs 117.38) and a marginally higher scoring average from its starters, while Toronto’s starters sit a touch better on defense overall.

Final Prediction

Houston’s combination of top-end scoring (Kevin Durant’s 26.0 and Alperen Şengün’s 20.4 on average) and the slight offensive rating advantage give them the projected edge. Key factor to watch: the interior matchup between Jakob Poeltl and Alperen Şengün and how well each team defends the paint after recent defensive lapses.

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