NBA 2025-2026: Philadelphia 76ers vs Memphis Grizzlies: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Philadelphia 76ers

Home Team
50.1%
VS

Memphis Grizzlies

Away Team
49.9%
2025-2026 Season

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Quentin Grimes
OR
115.1
DR
117.7
PTS
12.8
VS
Javon Small
OR
107.1
DR
120.4
PTS
8.0
SG
VJ Edgecombe
OR
112.2
DR
115.9
PTS
15.3
VS
Jaylen Wells
OR
110.8
DR
118.9
PTS
12.7
SF
Dominick Barlow
OR
124.4
DR
116.1
PTS
8.1
VS
Ty Jerome
OR
128.8
DR
122.9
PTS
19.4
PF
Kelly Oubre Jr.
OR
109.1
DR
117.1
PTS
14.3
VS
GG Jackson II
OR
101.2
DR
97.8
PTS
11.0
C
Adem Bona
OR
118.8
DR
114.5
PTS
4.6
VS
Olivier-Maxence Prosper
OR
109.0
DR
117.5
PTS
8.1
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

The model leans to the Philadelphia 76ers to win (50.1% probability). Expected starting fives — Philadelphia 76ers: Quentin Grimes, VJ Edgecombe, Dominick Barlow, Kelly Oubre Jr., Adem Bona. Memphis Grizzlies: Javon Small, Jaylen Wells, Ty Jerome, GG Jackson II, Olivier-Maxence Prosper.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected combined point total is 227.42, pointing to a moderately fast, higher-scoring game rather than a grind-it-out defensive battle. The expected spread (Home - Away) is just 0.29, essentially a coin flip with a negligible home edge.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 227.4 Most likely outcome: 227 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Philadelphia 76ers - Memphis Grizzlies) 0.3
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams’ power ratings are falling over recent games, with Philadelphia dipping less steeply than Memphis.

Philadelphia 76ers

1497.1 -21.4 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-09 Cleveland Cavaliers 1497.1 -7.3
2026-03-07 Atlanta Hawks 1504.4 -9.9
2026-03-04 Utah Jazz 1514.3 +4.7
2026-03-03 San Antonio Spurs 1509.6 -8.9
2026-03-01 Boston Celtics 1518.5 —

Memphis Grizzlies

1379.3 -31.1 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-09 Brooklyn Nets 1379.3 -11.5
2026-03-07 Los Angeles Clippers 1390.8 -6.7
2026-03-04 Portland Trail Blazers 1397.5 -8.2
2026-03-03 Minnesota Timberwolves 1405.7 -4.7
2026-03-01 Indiana Pacers 1410.4 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Philadelphia 76ers

1-4 in last 5
L L W L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Cleveland Cavaliers 101 115 -14
Atlanta Hawks 116 125 -9
Utah Jazz 106 102 +4
San Antonio Spurs 91 131 -40
Boston Celtics 98 114 -16

Memphis Grizzlies

1-4 in last 5
L L L L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Brooklyn Nets 115 126 -11
Los Angeles Clippers 120 123 -3
Portland Trail Blazers 114 122 -8
Minnesota Timberwolves 110 117 -7
Indiana Pacers 125 106 +19

Game Analysis

Philadelphia is 1-2 in its last three (wins over Utah, losses to Cleveland and Atlanta) and shows some inconsistency on defense after giving up 115 and 125 in the two most recent losses. Memphis arrives on a three-game skid (losses to Brooklyn, L.A. Clippers and Portland), struggling to close out games and surrendering 123, 126 and 122 in those contests. Momentum favors neither side, but Memphis’ longer slide is notable. Looking at the expected starters, Philadelphia’s five average an offensive rating of 115.92 and a defensive rating of 116.26, totaling 55.1 points made (11.02 per player). Memphis’ starters average an offensive rating of 111.38 and a defensive rating of 115.50, totaling 59.2 points made (11.84 per player). Philly’s starters bring a slight offensive edge, while Memphis’ unit is marginally better defensively on paper; Ty Jerome (ORtg 128.8, 19.4 PTS) will be a primary matchup to watch.

Final Prediction

Philadelphia gets the narrow nod thanks to stronger overall ratings and a smaller recent slide in form. Key factor: can the Sixers contain Ty Jerome and limit Memphis’ scoring bursts while keeping pace in a game expected to reach about 227 points.

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