NBA 2025-2026: Portland Trail Blazers vs Charlotte Hornets: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Portland Trail Blazers
Home Team
36.8%
VS
Charlotte Hornets
Away Team
63.2%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Jrue Holiday
OR
117.7
DR
117.9
PTS
16.8
VS
LaMelo Ball
OR
114.0
DR
114.5
PTS
19.3
SG
Deni Avdija
OR
116.1
DR
117.0
PTS
24.3
VS
Brandon Miller
OR
111.7
DR
113.0
PTS
20.6
SF
Jerami Grant
OR
117.5
DR
119.7
PTS
18.9
VS
Kon Knueppel
OR
125.6
DR
116.8
PTS
19.2
PF
Toumani Camara
OR
111.1
DR
117.9
PTS
12.9
VS
Miles Bridges
OR
118.9
DR
115.9
PTS
17.5
C
Donovan Clingan
OR
130.4
DR
112.6
PTS
11.8
VS
Moussa Diabaté
OR
137.6
DR
111.9
PTS
8.3
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Charlotte Hornets are the pick to win (63.2% probability).
Expected starting five — Portland Trail Blazers: Jrue Holiday, Deni Avdija, Jerami Grant, Toumani Camara, Donovan Clingan.
Expected starting five — Charlotte Hornets: LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, Kon Knueppel, Miles Bridges, Moussa Diabaté.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model pegs the game at a combined 233.89 points, signaling a high-scoring affair and a fairly quick pace. The expected spread is Home - Away = -4.28, which gives a 4.28-point edge to the away team.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
233.9
Most likely outcome: 233 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Portland Trail Blazers - Charlotte Hornets)
-4.3
Most likely outcome: -5 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Portland’s rating has fallen more sharply over the last five games while Charlotte’s rating has dipped slightly but been relatively steadier.
Portland Trail Blazers
1485.6
-5.0 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Indiana Pacers | 1485.6 | +6.0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Houston Rockets | 1479.6 | -7.4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Memphis Grizzlies | 1487.0 | +8.2 |
| 2026-03-01 | Atlanta Hawks | 1478.8 | -11.8 |
| 2026-02-28 | Charlotte Hornets | 1490.6 | — |
Charlotte Hornets
1556.9
-2.8 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Phoenix Suns | 1556.9 | -11.4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Miami Heat | 1568.3 | -12.2 |
| 2026-03-04 | Boston Celtics | 1580.5 | +15.0 |
| 2026-03-03 | Dallas Mavericks | 1565.5 | +5.8 |
| 2026-02-28 | Portland Trail Blazers | 1559.7 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Portland Trail Blazers
2-3 in last 5
W
L
W
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana Pacers | 131 | 111 | +20 | |
| Houston Rockets | 99 | 106 | -7 | |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 122 | 114 | +8 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 101 | 135 | -34 | |
| Charlotte Hornets | 93 | 109 | -16 |
Charlotte Hornets
3-2 in last 5
L
L
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix Suns | 99 | 111 | -12 | |
| Miami Heat | 120 | 128 | -8 | |
| Boston Celtics | 118 | 89 | +29 | |
| Dallas Mavericks | 117 | 90 | +27 | |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 109 | 93 | +16 |
Game Analysis
Portland is 2-1 across the last three games, beating Indiana 131-111 and Memphis 122-114 while dropping a 99-106 decision to Houston. Those results show Portland can score in bunches (131, 122) but also has an off night. Charlotte is 1-2, losing to Phoenix 99-111 and Miami 120-128 before a dominant 118-89 win over Boston, a split that suggests inconsistency but the ability to close out a game emphatically.
Looking at the expected starting units, Portland’s five average an offensive rating of 118.56, defensive rating of 117.02, and average points made of 16.94. Charlotte’s starters average a higher offensive rating of 121.56, a better defensive rating of 114.42, and average points made of 16.98. Individual standouts on paper include Donovan Clingan (ORtg 130.4) for Portland and Moussa Diabaté (ORtg 137.6) for Charlotte, which could tilt interior matchups.
Final Prediction
Charlotte’s edge comes down to a stronger starting unit on both ends (121.56 ORtg vs 118.56; 114.42 DRtg vs 117.02) and the projected 63.2% win probability. Watch the big-man matchups — how Diabaté and Clingan perform will be a decisive factor.
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