NBA 2025-2026: Sacramento Kings vs Indiana Pacers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Sacramento Kings

Home Team
39.5%
VS

Indiana Pacers

Away Team
60.5%
2025-2026 Season

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Russell Westbrook
OR
101.9
DR
120.2
PTS
15.4
VS
Kam Jones
OR
117.5
DR
125.4
PTS
4.0
SG
Nique Clifford
OR
90.0
DR
121.6
PTS
7.3
VS
Aaron Nesmith
OR
103.8
DR
119.9
PTS
12.6
SF
DeMar DeRozan
OR
122.5
DR
123.4
PTS
18.2
VS
Jarace Walker
OR
100.5
DR
117.9
PTS
11.2
PF
Precious Achiuwa
OR
114.0
DR
118.6
PTS
8.7
VS
Obi Toppin
OR
92.2
DR
121.1
PTS
6.9
C
Maxime Raynaud
OR
113.6
DR
120.5
PTS
10.9
VS
Jay Huff
OR
110.3
DR
114.8
PTS
9.3
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Indiana Pacers are the pick to win this game — probability 60.5%. Expected starting five — Sacramento Kings: Russell Westbrook, Nique Clifford, DeMar DeRozan, Precious Achiuwa, Maxime Raynaud. Indiana Pacers: Kam Jones, Aaron Nesmith, Jarace Walker, Obi Toppin, Jay Huff.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected combined score is 229.08, which points to a moderately high-scoring game and a fairly fast pace for both teams. The expected spread (Home - Away) is +3.25, favoring the home team (Sacramento) by a few points. Note that the winner probability and the point-spread projection come from two separate models — the probability model favors Indiana, while the spread model gives a small edge to Sacramento; both are shown for transparency.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 229.1 Most likely outcome: 229 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Sacramento Kings - Indiana Pacers) 3.2 Most likely outcome: 3 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Sacramento’s power rating has been roughly stable with a slight dip (-4.2 over five games), while Indiana’s rating has fallen more noticeably (-26.1 over five games).

Sacramento Kings

1321.3 -4.2 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-08 Chicago Bulls 1321.3 +13.6
2026-03-05 New Orleans Pelicans 1307.7 -8.3
2026-03-03 Phoenix Suns 1316.0 -4.6
2026-03-01 Los Angeles Lakers 1320.6 -4.9
2026-02-26 Dallas Mavericks 1325.5 —

Indiana Pacers

1322.2 -26.1 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-08 Portland Trail Blazers 1322.2 -6.0
2026-03-06 Los Angeles Lakers 1328.2 -4.4
2026-03-04 Los Angeles Clippers 1332.6 -5.1
2026-03-01 Memphis Grizzlies 1337.7 -10.6
2026-02-26 Charlotte Hornets 1348.3 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Sacramento Kings

2-3 in last 5
W L L L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Chicago Bulls 126 110 +16
New Orleans Pelicans 123 133 -10
Phoenix Suns 103 114 -11
Los Angeles Lakers 104 128 -24
Dallas Mavericks 130 121 +9

Indiana Pacers

0-5 in last 5
L L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Portland Trail Blazers 111 131 -20
Los Angeles Lakers 117 128 -11
Los Angeles Clippers 107 130 -23
Memphis Grizzlies 106 125 -19
Charlotte Hornets 109 133 -24

Game Analysis

Sacramento is 1-2 in its last three (beat Chicago 126-110, lost to New Orleans 123-133 and Phoenix 103-114), showing offensive upside but some defensive inconsistency. Indiana is on a three-game skid (lost 111-131 to Portland, 117-128 to the Lakers, 107-130 to the Clippers) and has surrendered large totals recently, suggesting defensive lapses in recent outings. Look at the starting-five profiles: Sacramento’s five average an offensive rating of 108.4, defensive rating of 120.86, and average points made 12.1; Indiana’s five average an offensive rating of 104.86, defensive rating of 119.82, and average points made 8.8. That paints Sacramento as the slightly stronger offensive unit while Indiana’s starters have a marginally better defensive rating.

Final Prediction

The model leans Indiana (60.5%) despite a spread that favors Sacramento, largely because Indiana’s overall profile and probability model give them the edge. Key factor to watch: whether DeMar DeRozan (18.2 avg points made) can impose his scoring against Indiana’s defense and force the Pacers out of their recent slide.

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