NBA 2025-2026: San Antonio Spurs vs Boston Celtics: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
San Antonio Spurs
Home Team
58.2%
VS
Boston Celtics
Away Team
41.8%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
De'Aaron Fox
OR
117.7
DR
112.9
PTS
18.9
VS
Derrick White
OR
118.5
DR
112.2
PTS
17.2
SG
Stephon Castle
OR
114.7
DR
111.1
PTS
16.3
VS
Jaylen Brown
OR
114.1
DR
113.4
PTS
28.7
SF
Devin Vassell
OR
114.6
DR
113.9
PTS
14.2
VS
Jayson Tatum
OR
109.0
DR
104.0
PTS
17.5
PF
Julian Champagnie
OR
119.8
DR
111.5
PTS
11.4
VS
Sam Hauser
OR
116.1
DR
115.3
PTS
9.3
C
Victor Wembanyama
OR
118.8
DR
99.7
PTS
23.9
VS
Neemias Queta
OR
134.9
DR
107.8
PTS
10.0
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
San Antonio Spurs are the pick to win (58.2% probability).
Expected starters — San Antonio Spurs: De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama. Boston Celtics: Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Sam Hauser, Neemias Queta.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The game’s expected total is 219.4 points, pointing to a moderately high-scoring outing and a fairly quick pace. The projected spread is Home - Away: 4.27, which gives the home team a modest 4.27-point edge (which would favor the Spurs if they’re the home side).
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
219.4
Most likely outcome: 219 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (San Antonio Spurs - Boston Celtics)
4.3
Most likely outcome: 4 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
San Antonio’s power rating has surged (+32.4 over five games) while Boston’s has crept up more modestly (+7.4), so momentum favors the Spurs.
San Antonio Spurs
1685.9
+32.4 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Houston Rockets | 1685.9 | +7.5 |
| 2026-03-06 | Los Angeles Clippers | 1678.4 | +5.6 |
| 2026-03-05 | Detroit Pistons | 1672.8 | +10.4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1662.4 | +8.9 |
| 2026-03-01 | New York Knicks | 1653.5 | — |
Boston Celtics
1630.7
+7.4 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1630.7 | +11.1 |
| 2026-03-06 | Dallas Mavericks | 1619.6 | +3.9 |
| 2026-03-04 | Charlotte Hornets | 1615.7 | -15.0 |
| 2026-03-02 | Milwaukee Bucks | 1630.7 | +7.4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1623.3 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
San Antonio Spurs
4-1 in last 5
W
W
W
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Rockets | 145 | 120 | +25 | |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 116 | 112 | +4 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 121 | 106 | +15 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 131 | 91 | +40 | |
| New York Knicks | 89 | 114 | -25 |
Boston Celtics
4-1 in last 5
W
W
L
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 109 | 98 | +11 | |
| Dallas Mavericks | 120 | 100 | +20 | |
| Charlotte Hornets | 89 | 118 | -29 | |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 108 | 81 | +27 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 114 | 98 | +16 |
Game Analysis
San Antonio arrives on a three-game win streak, with recent scores of 145-120, 116-112 and 121-106 — showing they can both score in bunches and defend well enough to win comfortable games. Boston is 2-1 in its last three, taking solid wins 109-98 and 120-100 but suffering a heavy 89-118 loss, which suggests some inconsistency on one end of the floor. The Spurs’ recent stretch looks more stable and higher-scoring overall.
Looking at the projected starters, San Antonio’s five average an offensive rating of 117.12, defensive rating of 109.82, and 16.94 points made per player. Boston’s starting five average an offensive rating of 118.52, defensive rating of 110.54, and 16.54 points made per player. Boston shows a slight edge in raw offense, but the Spurs’ better team defense (lower defensive rating) and scoring balance — led by Victor Wembanyama’s 23.9 ppg — could swing things.
Final Prediction
The Spurs get the nod because of hotter form, a steeper power-rating climb, and a strong defensive profile among starters. Key factor to watch: Wembanyama’s defensive impact (DRtg 99.7) and whether Boston’s top scorers can overcome the Spurs’ recent defensive consistency.
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