NBA 2025-2026: Denver Nuggets vs Houston Rockets: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Denver Nuggets
Home Team
60.0%
VS
Houston Rockets
Away Team
40.0%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Jamal Murray
OR
124.4
DR
120.2
PTS
25.4
VS
Amen Thompson
OR
122.6
DR
113.6
PTS
17.7
SG
Christian Braun
OR
119.0
DR
118.2
PTS
10.6
VS
Jabari Smith Jr.
OR
123.8
DR
114.2
PTS
15.4
SF
Aaron Gordon
OR
122.3
DR
115.5
PTS
17.3
VS
Kevin Durant
OR
124.9
DR
114.5
PTS
26.1
PF
Cameron Johnson
OR
118.0
DR
119.4
PTS
11.1
VS
Tari Eason
OR
113.4
DR
111.6
PTS
10.9
C
Nikola Jokić
OR
136.7
DR
113.6
PTS
28.9
VS
Alperen Şengün
OR
113.6
DR
111.3
PTS
20.3
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Denver Nuggets are projected to win (60.0% probability). Expected starting five — Denver: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson, Nikola Jokić; Houston: Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Kevin Durant, Tari Eason, Alperen Şengün.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 233.77 points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring game and an above-average pace. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 5.09, giving roughly a 5.1-point edge to the home side — in this projection that edge favors Denver.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
233.8
Most likely outcome: 233 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Denver Nuggets - Houston Rockets)
5.1
Most likely outcome: 5 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
New to probability charts?
Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
ELO Rating Trends
Both teams show slight downward momentum over the last five games (Denver -3.5, Houston -3.1).
Denver Nuggets
1537.5
-3.5 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1537.5 | -6.0 |
| 2026-03-06 | New York Knicks | 1543.5 | -12.1 |
| 2026-03-05 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1555.6 | +9.7 |
| 2026-03-02 | Utah Jazz | 1545.9 | +4.9 |
| 2026-03-01 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1541.0 | — |
Houston Rockets
1574.5
-3.1 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | Toronto Raptors | 1574.5 | +9.3 |
| 2026-03-08 | San Antonio Spurs | 1565.2 | -7.5 |
| 2026-03-06 | Portland Trail Blazers | 1572.7 | +7.4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Golden State Warriors | 1565.3 | -12.3 |
| 2026-03-02 | Washington Wizards | 1577.6 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Denver Nuggets
2-3 in last 5
L
L
W
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 126 | 129 | -3 | |
| New York Knicks | 103 | 142 | -39 | |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 120 | 113 | +7 | |
| Utah Jazz | 128 | 125 | +3 | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 108 | 117 | -9 |
Houston Rockets
3-2 in last 5
W
L
W
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Raptors | 113 | 99 | +14 | |
| San Antonio Spurs | 120 | 145 | -25 | |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 106 | 99 | +7 | |
| Golden State Warriors | 113 | 115 | -2 | |
| Washington Wizards | 123 | 118 | +5 |
Game Analysis
Denver enters with two losses and a win in the last three: a close 126-129 loss to OKC, a heavy 103-142 loss to New York, and a 120-113 win over the Lakers. That sequence highlights offensive capacity but some defensive lapses (142 allowed). Houston’s last three are two wins (113-99 vs Toronto, 106-99 vs Portland) and a blowout loss (120-145 vs San Antonio), showing streaky defense as well.
Looking at the projected starters, Denver’s five average an offensive rating of 124.1, defensive rating of 117.4, and about 18.7 points made per starter; Houston’s five average an offensive rating of 119.7, defensive rating of 113.0, and about 18.1 points made per starter. Nikola Jokić (offensive rating 136.7, 28.9 PTS) is the clear engine for Denver, while Kevin Durant (offensive rating 124.9, 26.1 PTS) and Alperen Şengün anchor Houston’s scoring and creation.
Final Prediction
Denver’s higher average offensive rating and Jokić’s elite contribution give them the edge in this matchup. Key factor to watch: how Denver defends the Durant–Şengün pick-and-roll actions and whether Jokić can control the interior battle.
Get Daily NBA Predictions
Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven NBA predictions directly on your phone.
Join Our Telegram Channel