NBA 2025-2026: Los Angeles Clippers vs Minnesota Timberwolves: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Los Angeles Clippers
Home Team
45.0%
VS
Minnesota Timberwolves
Away Team
55.0%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Darius Garland
OR
112.2
DR
117.8
PTS
17.0
VS
Anthony Edwards
OR
118.0
DR
114.6
PTS
29.3
SG
Kris Dunn
OR
117.4
DR
116.5
PTS
7.8
VS
Donte DiVincenzo
OR
118.2
DR
114.0
PTS
12.6
SF
Derrick Jones Jr.
OR
125.8
DR
118.3
PTS
11.2
VS
Jaden McDaniels
OR
115.2
DR
114.7
PTS
14.7
PF
Kawhi Leonard
OR
124.4
DR
112.0
PTS
27.9
VS
Julius Randle
OR
118.3
DR
114.1
PTS
21.2
C
Brook Lopez
OR
96.6
DR
115.2
PTS
7.8
VS
Rudy Gobert
OR
132.7
DR
110.0
PTS
10.9
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Minnesota Timberwolves are the pick to win (55.0% probability).
Expected starting five — Los Angeles Clippers: Darius Garland, Kris Dunn, Derrick Jones Jr., Kawhi Leonard, Brook Lopez. Minnesota Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The projected total is 238.59 points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring game and an uptempo matchup. The spread (Home - Away = -3.36) implies the Timberwolves are favored by about 3.4 points on the road, giving Minnesota a slight edge.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
238.6
Most likely outcome: 238 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Los Angeles Clippers - Minnesota Timberwolves)
-3.4
Most likely outcome: -4 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
The Clippers’ power rating has been rising over the last five games while Minnesota’s has ticked down.
Los Angeles Clippers
1551.6
+17.8 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | New York Knicks | 1551.6 | +11.8 |
| 2026-03-07 | Memphis Grizzlies | 1539.8 | +6.7 |
| 2026-03-06 | San Antonio Spurs | 1533.1 | -5.7 |
| 2026-03-04 | Indiana Pacers | 1538.8 | +5.0 |
| 2026-03-02 | Golden State Warriors | 1533.8 | — |
Minnesota Timberwolves
1567.5
-14.1 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1567.5 | -11.4 |
| 2026-03-07 | Orlando Magic | 1578.9 | -15.4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Toronto Raptors | 1594.3 | +7.9 |
| 2026-03-03 | Memphis Grizzlies | 1586.4 | +4.8 |
| 2026-03-01 | Denver Nuggets | 1581.6 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Los Angeles Clippers
4-1 in last 5
W
W
L
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Knicks | 126 | 118 | +8 | |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 123 | 120 | +3 | |
| San Antonio Spurs | 112 | 116 | -4 | |
| Indiana Pacers | 130 | 107 | +23 | |
| Golden State Warriors | 114 | 101 | +13 |
Minnesota Timberwolves
3-2 in last 5
L
L
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Lakers | 106 | 120 | -14 | |
| Orlando Magic | 92 | 119 | -27 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 115 | 107 | +8 | |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 117 | 110 | +7 | |
| Denver Nuggets | 117 | 108 | +9 |
Game Analysis
Los Angeles comes in with two wins in their last three — 126-118 over the Knicks and 123-120 over the Grizzlies — with a tight 112-116 loss to the Spurs, showing they can close out close contests. Minnesota is 1-2 in their last three, dropping 106-120 to the Lakers and 92-119 to the Magic before a 115-107 bounce-back win over Toronto; that two-game skid raises questions about consistency.
Looking at the projected starting units, the Timberwolves’ five average an offensive rating of 120.48 and a defensive rating of 113.48, with an average 17.74 points made per starter. The Clippers’ projected five average an offensive rating of 115.28, defensive rating of 115.96, and 14.34 points made per starter. Minnesota’s group shows an edge on both ends on paper, particularly offensively and in scoring depth.
Final Prediction
Minnesota’s higher offensive profile and stronger per-starter scoring give them the narrow edge despite some negative momentum. Watch how the Timberwolves handle spacing and Rudy Gobert’s rim protection against Kawhi — that matchup should decide the game.
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