NBA 2025-2026: New Orleans Pelicans vs Toronto Raptors: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
New Orleans Pelicans
Home Team
45.8%
VS
Toronto Raptors
Away Team
54.2%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Dejounte Murray
OR
112.8
DR
112.8
PTS
16.0
VS
Immanuel Quickley
OR
120.8
DR
114.7
PTS
17.2
SG
Herbert Jones
OR
101.9
DR
117.3
PTS
8.8
VS
Brandon Ingram
OR
108.7
DR
114.1
PTS
21.5
SF
Saddiq Bey
OR
122.1
DR
121.0
PTS
17.5
VS
RJ Barrett
OR
115.0
DR
113.8
PTS
18.8
PF
Trey Murphy III
OR
122.4
DR
119.8
PTS
22.0
VS
Scottie Barnes
OR
114.7
DR
109.8
PTS
19.0
C
Zion Williamson
OR
124.4
DR
118.6
PTS
21.5
VS
Jakob Poeltl
OR
127.0
DR
108.8
PTS
9.9
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Toronto Raptors are the projected winner (54.2% probability). Expected starting five — New Orleans Pelicans: Dejounte Murray, Herbert Jones, Saddiq Bey, Trey Murphy III, Zion Williamson. Toronto Raptors: Immanuel Quickley, Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The expected combined total is 234.54 points, signaling a game that leans toward an uptempo, high-scoring affair given both teams’ recent offensive outputs. The expected spread (Home - Away) is -1.41, a very slim edge to the home team; despite that small home advantage, the projection favors Toronto.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
234.5
Most likely outcome: 234 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (New Orleans Pelicans - Toronto Raptors)
-1.4
Most likely outcome: -2 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
New Orleans’ power rating has been rising slightly (+4.9 over five games) while Toronto’s has declined (-20.4 over five games), so momentum favors the Pelicans.
New Orleans Pelicans
1419.1
+4.9 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Washington Wizards | 1419.1 | +8.6 |
| 2026-03-06 | Phoenix Suns | 1410.5 | -6.0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Sacramento Kings | 1416.5 | +8.4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1408.1 | -6.1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Los Angeles Clippers | 1414.2 | — |
Toronto Raptors
1522.1
-20.4 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | Houston Rockets | 1522.1 | -9.3 |
| 2026-03-08 | Dallas Mavericks | 1531.4 | +6.6 |
| 2026-03-05 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1524.8 | -7.9 |
| 2026-03-03 | New York Knicks | 1532.7 | -9.8 |
| 2026-02-28 | Washington Wizards | 1542.5 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
New Orleans Pelicans
2-3 in last 5
W
L
W
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Wizards | 138 | 118 | +20 | |
| Phoenix Suns | 116 | 118 | -2 | |
| Sacramento Kings | 133 | 123 | +10 | |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 101 | 110 | -9 | |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 117 | 137 | -20 |
Toronto Raptors
2-3 in last 5
L
W
L
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Rockets | 99 | 113 | -14 | |
| Dallas Mavericks | 122 | 92 | +30 | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 107 | 115 | -8 | |
| New York Knicks | 95 | 111 | -16 | |
| Washington Wizards | 134 | 125 | +9 |
Game Analysis
New Orleans has scored prolifically in its last three outings (138-118 win, 116-118 loss, 133-123 win), showing they can push pace and pile up points. Toronto has been inconsistent (99-113 loss, 122-92 win, 107-115 loss), capable of a dominant defensive outing but also vulnerable to higher-scoring teams. That inconsistency is a major storyline here.
Looking at the expected starting fives, the Pelicans’ five average offensive rating is 116.72, defensive rating 117.90, and average points made 17.16. The Raptors’ starters average offensive rating 117.24, defensive rating 112.24, and average points made 17.28. Offensively they’re nearly identical, but Toronto holds a clear defensive edge with a substantially better starter defensive rating, which could be decisive in a close game.
Final Prediction
Toronto’s edge comes from its stronger starting-five defense and balanced offensive profile, enough to overcome a modest home tilt. Key factor to watch: can Toronto’s interior defense (led by Jakob Poeltl) contain New Orleans’ high-volume scorers and limit second-chance opportunities?
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