NBA 2025-2026: Sacramento Kings vs Charlotte Hornets: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Sacramento Kings
Home Team
16.6%
VS
Charlotte Hornets
Away Team
83.4%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Russell Westbrook
OR
102.4
DR
120.0
PTS
15.5
VS
LaMelo Ball
OR
113.7
DR
114.4
PTS
19.2
SG
Nique Clifford
OR
89.9
DR
121.3
PTS
7.4
VS
Brandon Miller
OR
111.6
DR
112.7
PTS
20.7
SF
DeMar DeRozan
OR
121.8
DR
123.0
PTS
18.1
VS
Kon Knueppel
OR
126.0
DR
116.6
PTS
19.2
PF
Precious Achiuwa
OR
113.6
DR
118.3
PTS
8.7
VS
Miles Bridges
OR
118.3
DR
115.8
PTS
17.4
C
Maxime Raynaud
OR
113.7
DR
120.2
PTS
11.0
VS
Moussa Diabaté
OR
137.2
DR
111.7
PTS
8.2
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Charlotte Hornets are projected to win this game with an 83.4% probability. Expected starting fives — Sacramento Kings: Russell Westbrook, Nique Clifford, DeMar DeRozan, Precious Achiuwa, Maxime Raynaud; Charlotte Hornets: LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, Kon Knueppel, Miles Bridges, Moussa Diabaté.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined total of 228.15 points, suggesting a moderately high-scoring game with decent pace and offensive execution from both sides. The expected spread is -14.18 (home − away), favoring the Hornets by about 14.2 points and indicating a sizable advantage for Charlotte at home.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
228.2
Most likely outcome: 228 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Sacramento Kings - Charlotte Hornets)
-14.2
Most likely outcome: -15 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Sacramento’s power rating is rising (+10.1 over five games) while Charlotte’s is essentially stable (−0.5 over five games).
Sacramento Kings
1330.7
+10.1 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | Indiana Pacers | 1330.7 | +9.4 |
| 2026-03-08 | Chicago Bulls | 1321.3 | +13.6 |
| 2026-03-05 | New Orleans Pelicans | 1307.7 | -8.3 |
| 2026-03-03 | Phoenix Suns | 1316.0 | -4.6 |
| 2026-03-01 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1320.6 | — |
Charlotte Hornets
1565.0
-0.5 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | Portland Trail Blazers | 1565.0 | +8.1 |
| 2026-03-08 | Phoenix Suns | 1556.9 | -11.4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Miami Heat | 1568.3 | -12.2 |
| 2026-03-04 | Boston Celtics | 1580.5 | +15.0 |
| 2026-03-03 | Dallas Mavericks | 1565.5 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Sacramento Kings
2-3 in last 5
W
W
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana Pacers | 114 | 109 | +5 | |
| Chicago Bulls | 126 | 110 | +16 | |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 123 | 133 | -10 | |
| Phoenix Suns | 103 | 114 | -11 | |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 104 | 128 | -24 |
Charlotte Hornets
3-2 in last 5
W
L
L
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Trail Blazers | 103 | 101 | +2 | |
| Phoenix Suns | 99 | 111 | -12 | |
| Miami Heat | 120 | 128 | -8 | |
| Boston Celtics | 118 | 89 | +29 | |
| Dallas Mavericks | 117 | 90 | +27 |
Game Analysis
Sacramento arrives winning two of their last three, beating Indiana 114-109 and Chicago 126-110 but dropping a higher-scoring affair to New Orleans 123-133. Charlotte is 1-2 in their last three, scraping by Portland 103-101 and losing to Phoenix 99-111 and Miami 120-128; those results show some inconsistency on both ends for the Hornets. Sacramento’s recent uptick suggests they’re finding better form, but the Kings have also allowed a lot of points in their loss to New Orleans.
Looking at the projected starters, Sacramento’s five average an offensive rating of 108.28 and a defensive rating of 120.56, with combined average points made of 60.7 (12.14 per starter). Charlotte’s starters are stronger on both ends: offensive rating 121.36, defensive rating 114.24, and 84.7 total points made (16.94 per starter). That gap in efficiency and scoring from the starting units is the core reason the Hornets are heavily favored.
Final Prediction
Charlotte’s superior starter efficiency and the sizable projected spread give them a clear edge. Key factor to watch: can Sacramento slow down Kon Knueppel and Moussa Diabaté and prevent LaMelo Ball from creating easy looks for the Hornets’ efficient starters.
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