NBA 2025-2026: Utah Jazz vs New York Knicks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Utah Jazz
Home Team
24.7%
VS
New York Knicks
Away Team
75.3%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Keyonte George
OR
116.3
DR
124.9
PTS
23.8
VS
Jalen Brunson
OR
121.0
DR
116.7
PTS
26.2
SG
Cody Williams
OR
96.7
DR
124.1
PTS
6.2
VS
Josh Hart
OR
119.2
DR
110.0
PTS
11.8
SF
Ace Bailey
OR
103.1
DR
122.9
PTS
12.4
VS
Mikal Bridges
OR
126.3
DR
112.9
PTS
15.2
PF
Brice Sensabaugh
OR
106.0
DR
124.3
PTS
12.9
VS
OG Anunoby
OR
114.2
DR
111.7
PTS
16.5
C
Kyle Filipowski
OR
113.6
DR
118.2
PTS
10.5
VS
Karl-Anthony Towns
OR
121.1
DR
109.2
PTS
20.0
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
The New York Knicks are the pick to win this one, with a 75.3% probability.
Expected starting fives — Utah Jazz: Keyonte George, Cody Williams, Ace Bailey, Brice Sensabaugh, Kyle Filipowski. New York Knicks: Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The game projects to be high-scoring with an expected combined total of 238.75 points, signaling a fast pace and plenty of offense. The expected spread is Home - Away: -11.02, which gives a sizable edge to the Knicks (they’re roughly 11 points favorites on the road).
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
238.8
Most likely outcome: 238 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Utah Jazz - New York Knicks)
-11.0
Most likely outcome: -12 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Utah’s ratings have been rising modestly over recent games while New York’s have drifted down.
Utah Jazz
1354.7
+13.1 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | Golden State Warriors | 1354.7 | +13.1 |
| 2026-03-07 | Milwaukee Bucks | 1341.6 | -6.9 |
| 2026-03-05 | Washington Wizards | 1348.5 | +11.5 |
| 2026-03-04 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1337.0 | -4.6 |
| 2026-03-02 | Denver Nuggets | 1341.6 | — |
New York Knicks
1593.5
-22.0 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | Los Angeles Clippers | 1593.5 | -11.7 |
| 2026-03-08 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1605.2 | -12.9 |
| 2026-03-06 | Denver Nuggets | 1618.1 | +12.1 |
| 2026-03-04 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1606.0 | -9.5 |
| 2026-03-03 | Toronto Raptors | 1615.5 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Utah Jazz
2-3 in last 5
W
L
W
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden State Warriors | 119 | 116 | +3 | |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 99 | 113 | -14 | |
| Washington Wizards | 122 | 112 | +10 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 102 | 106 | -4 | |
| Denver Nuggets | 125 | 128 | -3 |
New York Knicks
2-3 in last 5
L
L
W
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Clippers | 118 | 126 | -8 | |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 97 | 110 | -13 | |
| Denver Nuggets | 142 | 103 | +39 | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 100 | 103 | -3 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 111 | 95 | +16 |
Game Analysis
Utah is 2-1 over the last three with road wins against Golden State (119-116) and Washington (122-112) and a loss to Milwaukee (99-113). Those results show the Jazz can score in bunches but also struggled against a strong Bucks defense. New York is 1-2 in the same stretch, dropping games to the Clippers (118-126) and Lakers (97-110) before a dominant 142-103 win over Denver, so their form has been uneven with one massive offensive night.
Looking at the projected starting units, New York’s five average an offensive rating of about 120.36, a defensive rating near 112.10, and roughly 17.94 points made per starter. Utah’s projected starters average an offensive rating of about 107.14, a defensive rating near 122.88, and about 13.16 points made per starter. Those gaps — notably New York’s superior offense and cleaner defense — help explain the expected outcome.
Final Prediction
The Knicks’ better two-way numbers and scoring depth give them the clear edge in this matchup. Watch how Utah defends the perimeter and whether New York can avoid another off-night outside of their explosive Denver performance.
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