NBA 2025-2026: Detroit Pistons vs Philadelphia 76ers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Detroit Pistons
Home Team
79.3%
VS
Philadelphia 76ers
Away Team
20.7%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Cade Cunningham
OR
118.6
DR
110.6
PTS
25.1
VS
Quentin Grimes
OR
115.1
DR
117.9
PTS
13.0
SG
Marcus Sasser
OR
90.9
DR
104.4
PTS
5.2
VS
VJ Edgecombe
OR
112.6
DR
116.1
PTS
15.4
SF
Duncan Robinson
OR
124.5
DR
115.2
PTS
11.9
VS
Dominick Barlow
OR
124.3
DR
116.4
PTS
8.1
PF
Tobias Harris
OR
116.1
DR
111.8
PTS
13.1
VS
Trendon Watford
OR
113.2
DR
117.9
PTS
6.3
C
Jalen Duren
OR
129.9
DR
107.9
PTS
18.6
VS
Andre Drummond
OR
111.4
DR
111.3
PTS
6.5
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Detroit Pistons are the pick to win (79.3% probability).
Expected starting fives — Detroit Pistons: Cade Cunningham, Marcus Sasser, Duncan Robinson, Tobias Harris, Jalen Duren; Philadelphia 76ers: Quentin Grimes, VJ Edgecombe, Dominick Barlow, Trendon Watford, Andre Drummond.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The combined total is expected to be 224.13 points, suggesting an above-average scoring tempo and plenty of possessions. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 14.23 points, which gives a sizable advantage to the home team by 14.23 points on the board.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
224.1
Most likely outcome: 224 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Detroit Pistons - Philadelphia 76ers)
14.2
Most likely outcome: 14 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Both teams show falling momentum over the last five games: Detroit down 32.9 points, Philadelphia down 6.3 points.
Detroit Pistons
1630.0
-32.9 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | Brooklyn Nets | 1630.0 | +4.4 |
| 2026-03-08 | Miami Heat | 1625.6 | -12.8 |
| 2026-03-07 | Brooklyn Nets | 1638.4 | -14.1 |
| 2026-03-05 | San Antonio Spurs | 1652.5 | -10.4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1662.9 | — |
Philadelphia 76ers
1503.3
-6.3 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | Memphis Grizzlies | 1503.3 | +6.2 |
| 2026-03-09 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1497.1 | -7.3 |
| 2026-03-07 | Atlanta Hawks | 1504.4 | -9.9 |
| 2026-03-04 | Utah Jazz | 1514.3 | +4.7 |
| 2026-03-03 | San Antonio Spurs | 1509.6 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Detroit Pistons
1-4 in last 5
W
L
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooklyn Nets | 138 | 100 | +38 | |
| Miami Heat | 110 | 121 | -11 | |
| Brooklyn Nets | 105 | 107 | -2 | |
| San Antonio Spurs | 106 | 121 | -15 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 109 | 113 | -4 |
Philadelphia 76ers
2-3 in last 5
W
L
L
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis Grizzlies | 139 | 129 | +10 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 101 | 115 | -14 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 116 | 125 | -9 | |
| Utah Jazz | 106 | 102 | +4 | |
| San Antonio Spurs | 91 | 131 | -40 |
Game Analysis
Detroit comes in after a big 138-100 win over Brooklyn, bookending two close losses (110-121 vs Miami and 105-107 vs Brooklyn). That blowout shows they can score in bunches, while the two losses were tight affairs — a team that can spike offensively and still be competitive. Philadelphia has one high-scoring win (139-129 vs Memphis) but followed with two losses (101-115 vs Cleveland, 116-125 vs Atlanta), a pattern that points to inconsistency on defense in recent games.
Looking at the expected starters, Detroit’s five average an offensive rating of 116.00, a defensive rating of 109.98, and average points made per starter of 14.78. Philadelphia’s starting five average an offensive rating of 115.32, a defensive rating of 115.92, and average points made per starter of 9.86. Those numbers give Detroit an edge on both ends — slightly better offense, notably better defense, and more scoring from their starting group.
Final Prediction
Detroit’s combination of stronger defensive numbers and higher scoring from its starters is why they’re favored here. Watch whether Detroit can sustain the defensive intensity that holds Philadelphia’s starters to their season averages — that matchup will decide the game.
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