NBA 2025-2026: Indiana Pacers vs Phoenix Suns: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Indiana Pacers
Home Team
22.1%
VS
Phoenix Suns
Away Team
77.9%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Andrew Nembhard
OR
111.5
DR
122.4
PTS
17.1
VS
Collin Gillespie
OR
121.9
DR
114.9
PTS
13.6
SG
Aaron Nesmith
OR
104.3
DR
119.7
PTS
13.1
VS
Devin Booker
OR
118.2
DR
116.7
PTS
24.9
SF
Jarace Walker
OR
99.9
DR
117.7
PTS
11.1
VS
Jalen Green
OR
95.9
DR
112.5
PTS
15.4
PF
Obi Toppin
OR
96.8
DR
119.7
PTS
8.0
VS
Royce O'Neale
OR
113.9
DR
114.0
PTS
10.0
C
Ivica Zubac
OR
0.0
DR
0.0
PTS
0.0
VS
Oso Ighodaro
OR
116.3
DR
112.1
PTS
6.0
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Phoenix Suns are the pick to win (77.9% probability).
Expected starting fives — Indiana Pacers: Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Jarace Walker, Obi Toppin, Ivica Zubac; Phoenix Suns: Collin Gillespie, Devin Booker, Jalen Green, Royce O'Neale, Oso Ighodaro
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model projects a combined total of 235.78 points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring game and an uptempo affair. The expected spread is -9.75 (Home - Away), which implies the Suns are favored by about 9.75 points and should hold a clear advantage in this matchup.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
235.8
Most likely outcome: 235 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Indiana Pacers - Phoenix Suns)
-9.8
Most likely outcome: -10 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Indiana’s rating trend is falling while Phoenix’s rating trend is rising.
Indiana Pacers
1312.7
-25.0 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | Sacramento Kings | 1312.7 | -9.5 |
| 2026-03-08 | Portland Trail Blazers | 1322.2 | -6.0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1328.2 | -4.4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Los Angeles Clippers | 1332.6 | -5.1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Memphis Grizzlies | 1337.7 | — |
Phoenix Suns
1555.4
+12.9 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | Milwaukee Bucks | 1555.4 | +8.4 |
| 2026-03-08 | Charlotte Hornets | 1547.0 | +11.4 |
| 2026-03-06 | New Orleans Pelicans | 1535.6 | +6.1 |
| 2026-03-05 | Chicago Bulls | 1529.5 | -13.0 |
| 2026-03-03 | Sacramento Kings | 1542.5 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Indiana Pacers
0-5 in last 5
L
L
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento Kings | 109 | 114 | -5 | |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 111 | 131 | -20 | |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 117 | 128 | -11 | |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 107 | 130 | -23 | |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 106 | 125 | -19 |
Phoenix Suns
4-1 in last 5
W
W
W
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Bucks | 129 | 114 | +15 | |
| Charlotte Hornets | 111 | 99 | +12 | |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 118 | 116 | +2 | |
| Chicago Bulls | 103 | 105 | -2 | |
| Sacramento Kings | 114 | 103 | +11 |
Game Analysis
Indiana enters on a three-game losing streak (losses 109-114, 111-131, 117-128) and has given up 114, 131 and 128 points in those games, indicating defensive lapses and trouble stopping opponents in recent outings. Phoenix is on a three-game winning streak (wins 129-114, 111-99, 118-116), showing consistent scoring and closing ability against quality opponents over the same stretch.
Looking at the projected starters, Indiana’s five average an offensive rating of 82.5, a defensive rating of 95.9, and an average of 9.9 points made per starter; note Ivica Zubac is listed with 0.0 for ratings and points, which pulls those averages down. Phoenix’s five average an offensive rating of 113.2, a defensive rating of 114.0, and 14.0 points made per starter. On paper the Suns possess the better scoring punch and more reliable offensive production from their expected lineup.
Final Prediction
The Suns’ recent form, stronger offensive profile in the projected starters, and rising team rating give them the edge. Watch Devin Booker’s scoring and how Indiana adjusts defensively — that matchup will likely decide whether Phoenix covers the spread.
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