NBA 2025-2026: Los Angeles Lakers vs Chicago Bulls: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Los Angeles Lakers

Home Team
78.6%
VS

Chicago Bulls

Away Team
21.4%
2025-2026 Season

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Luka Dončić
OR
119.7
DR
113.4
PTS
32.5
VS
Josh Giddey
OR
111.4
DR
116.0
PTS
17.7
SG
Austin Reaves
OR
122.5
DR
117.3
PTS
23.7
VS
Isaac Okoro
OR
113.5
DR
120.6
PTS
9.0
SF
LeBron James
OR
117.4
DR
116.9
PTS
21.4
VS
Matas Buzelis
OR
109.6
DR
116.6
PTS
15.8
PF
Rui Hachimura
OR
115.3
DR
120.4
PTS
11.6
VS
Guerschon Yabusele
OR
108.1
DR
115.6
PTS
10.2
C
Deandre Ayton
OR
124.2
DR
114.8
PTS
12.5
VS
Jalen Smith
OR
118.6
DR
115.3
PTS
10.2
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

The pick: Los Angeles Lakers to win (78.6% probability). Expected starting fives — Los Angeles Lakers: Luka Dončić, Austin Reaves, LeBron James, Rui Hachimura, Deandre Ayton. Chicago Bulls: Josh Giddey, Isaac Okoro, Matas Buzelis, Guerschon Yabusele, Jalen Smith.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 238.11 points, signaling a fairly high-scoring affair and an uptempo game plan on both ends. The expected spread is 10.61 (home − away), a double-digit edge for the home side; if the Lakers are the home team that aligns with a Lakers cover near 10.6 points.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 238.1 Most likely outcome: 238 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Los Angeles Lakers - Chicago Bulls) 10.6 Most likely outcome: 10 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Lakers are on a clear upward trend, while the Bulls show a smaller, modest rise.

Los Angeles Lakers

1562.7 +19.0 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-10 Minnesota Timberwolves 1562.7 +11.4
2026-03-08 New York Knicks 1551.3 +12.8
2026-03-06 Indiana Pacers 1538.5 +4.5
2026-03-05 Denver Nuggets 1534.0 -9.7
2026-03-03 New Orleans Pelicans 1543.7 —

Chicago Bulls

1410.1 +8.2 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-10 Golden State Warriors 1410.1 +12.9
2026-03-08 Sacramento Kings 1397.2 -13.6
2026-03-05 Phoenix Suns 1410.8 +13.0
2026-03-03 Oklahoma City Thunder 1397.8 -4.1
2026-03-01 Milwaukee Bucks 1401.9 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Los Angeles Lakers

4-1 in last 5
W W W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Minnesota Timberwolves 120 106 +14
New York Knicks 110 97 +13
Indiana Pacers 128 117 +11
Denver Nuggets 113 120 -7
New Orleans Pelicans 110 101 +9

Chicago Bulls

3-2 in last 5
W L W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Golden State Warriors 130 124 +6
Sacramento Kings 110 126 -16
Phoenix Suns 105 103 +2
Oklahoma City Thunder 108 116 -8
Milwaukee Bucks 120 97 +23

Game Analysis

Los Angeles arrives on a three-game winning streak — comfortable wins over Minnesota (120-106), New York (110-97) and Indiana (128-117) — showing balance on offense and the ability to close games. Chicago is 2-1 in its last three, including a high-scoring 130-124 win over Golden State, but their 110-126 loss to Sacramento exposed some inconsistency on defense. Looking at the projected starters, the Lakers boast an average offensive rating of 119.8 and defensive rating of 116.6, with an average of 20.3 points per starter — a high-end scoring group led by Luka and aided by Deandre Ayton’s efficient 124.2 offensive rating. The Bulls’ starters average a 112.2 offensive rating and 116.8 defensive rating with 12.6 points per starter, reflecting a less potent attack and more reliance on role scoring.

Final Prediction

The Lakers’ superior offensive firepower and recent momentum give them the edge in this matchup. Watch how well Chicago defends around the paint and whether the Bulls can slow the Lakers’ transition scoring — that will determine if this remains a comfortable Laker win.

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